Trader consensus assigns nearly half the probability to no further Cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting recent stability after earlier 2026 removals of officials including the homeland security secretary and attorney general. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads remaining names at 18 percent amid ongoing tensions over his unorthodox public-health positions and agency implementation challenges. Chris Wright follows at under 10 percent as traders monitor energy-sector deregulation efforts and related political headwinds. Lower-probability outcomes such as Doug Burgum, Susie Wiles, and Lee Zeldin tie to routine performance reviews, confirmation dynamics, or White House staffing adjustments without acute recent catalysts. The distribution underscores how past firings and policy friction shape current implied probabilities rather than any single imminent trigger.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाNone before 2027 47.9%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 18.0%
Susie Wiles 6.1%
Doug Burgum 6.0%
$42,090 वॉल्यूम
$42,090 वॉल्यूम
30 दिस, 2026
None before 2027
48%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
18%
Susie Wiles
6%
Doug Burgum
6%
Chris Wright
10%
Lee Zeldin
5%
Russell T. Vought
5%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Scott Bessent
3%
Sean Duffy
3%
Scott Turner
3%
Howard Lutnick
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Jamieson Greer
2%
Marco Rubio
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Kelly Loeffler
1%
Doug Collins
<1%
None before 2027 47.9%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 18.0%
Susie Wiles 6.1%
Doug Burgum 6.0%
$42,090 वॉल्यूम
$42,090 वॉल्यूम
30 दिस, 2026
None before 2027
$8,024 वॉल्यूम
48%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$18,346 वॉल्यूम
18%
Susie Wiles
$3,362 वॉल्यूम
6%
Doug Burgum
$779 वॉल्यूम
6%
Chris Wright
$730 वॉल्यूम
10%
Lee Zeldin
$636 वॉल्यूम
5%
Russell T. Vought
$473 वॉल्यूम
5%
Pete Hegseth
$939 वॉल्यूम
4%
Scott Bessent
$1,473 वॉल्यूम
3%
Sean Duffy
$632 वॉल्यूम
3%
Scott Turner
$351 वॉल्यूम
3%
Howard Lutnick
$826 वॉल्यूम
2%
Brooke Rollins
$670 वॉल्यूम
2%
J.D. Vance
$581 वॉल्यूम
2%
Jamieson Greer
$478 वॉल्यूम
2%
Marco Rubio
$498 वॉल्यूम
1%
John Ratcliffe
$517 वॉल्यूम
1%
Mike Waltz
$646 वॉल्यूम
1%
Linda McMahon
$847 वॉल्यूम
1%
Kelly Loeffler
$776 वॉल्यूम
1%
Doug Collins
$506 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus assigns nearly half the probability to no further Cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting recent stability after earlier 2026 removals of officials including the homeland security secretary and attorney general. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads remaining names at 18 percent amid ongoing tensions over his unorthodox public-health positions and agency implementation challenges. Chris Wright follows at under 10 percent as traders monitor energy-sector deregulation efforts and related political headwinds. Lower-probability outcomes such as Doug Burgum, Susie Wiles, and Lee Zeldin tie to routine performance reviews, confirmation dynamics, or White House staffing adjustments without acute recent catalysts. The distribution underscores how past firings and policy friction shape current implied probabilities rather than any single imminent trigger.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$42,090समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus assigns nearly half the probability to no further Cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting recent stability after earlier 2026 removals of officials including the homeland security secretary and attorney general. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads remaining names at 18 percent amid ongoing tensions over his unorthodox public-health positions and agency implementation challenges. Chris Wright follows at under 10 percent as traders monitor energy-sector deregulation efforts and related political headwinds. Lower-probability outcomes such as Doug Burgum, Susie Wiles, and Lee Zeldin tie to routine performance reviews, confirmation dynamics, or White House staffing adjustments without acute recent catalysts. The distribution underscores how past firings and policy friction shape current implied probabilities rather than any single imminent trigger.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$42,090समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns nearly half the probability to no further Cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting recent stability after earlier 2026 removals of officials including the homeland security secretary and attorney general. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads remaining names at 18 percent amid ongoing tensions over his unorthodox public-health positions and agency implementation challenges. Chris Wright follows at under 10 percent as traders monitor energy-sector deregulation efforts and related political headwinds. Lower-probability outcomes such as Doug Burgum, Susie Wiles, and Lee Zeldin tie to routine performance reviews, confirmation dynamics, or White House staffing adjustments without acute recent catalysts. The distribution underscores how past firings and policy friction shape current implied probabilities rather than any single imminent trigger.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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