**Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, supporting the 64.5% market-implied probability of no return to normal traffic in 2026.** Daily transits remain at roughly 10–20 vessels or lower—about 90% below pre-conflict baselines of 90–130+ per day—driven by active blockades, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, projectile incidents, and widespread use of “dark” AIS-disabled routes. Recent developments, including the collapse of the June ceasefire, renewed strikes, and August 25 Iran-Oman talks on temporary corridors and mine clearance, have produced only marginal rebounds followed by renewed suppression, with thousands of sailors and hundreds of vessels still stranded. These dynamics keep near-term resolution probabilities low while reinforcing trader consensus around sustained disruption through year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में सामान्य यातायात की वापसी नहीं 65%
December 11%
September 10%
November 8%
$367,246 वॉल्यूम
$367,246 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
August
1%
September
10%
October
8%
November
8%
December
11%
2026 में सामान्य यातायात की वापसी नहीं
65%
2026 में सामान्य यातायात की वापसी नहीं 65%
December 11%
September 10%
November 8%
$367,246 वॉल्यूम
$367,246 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
August
$47,696 वॉल्यूम
1%
September
$17,249 वॉल्यूम
10%
October
$9,352 वॉल्यूम
8%
November
$7,278 वॉल्यूम
8%
December
$17,528 वॉल्यूम
11%
2026 में सामान्य यातायात की वापसी नहीं
$242,317 वॉल्यूम
65%
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, supporting the 64.5% market-implied probability of no return to normal traffic in 2026.** Daily transits remain at roughly 10–20 vessels or lower—about 90% below pre-conflict baselines of 90–130+ per day—driven by active blockades, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, projectile incidents, and widespread use of “dark” AIS-disabled routes.
Recent developments, including the collapse of the June ceasefire, renewed strikes, and August 25 Iran-Oman talks on temporary corridors and mine clearance, have produced only marginal rebounds followed by renewed suppression, with thousands of sailors and hundreds of vessels still stranded. These dynamics keep near-term resolution probabilities low while reinforcing trader consensus around sustained disruption through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 8, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$367,246समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 8, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, supporting the 64.5% market-implied probability of no return to normal traffic in 2026.** Daily transits remain at roughly 10–20 vessels or lower—about 90% below pre-conflict baselines of 90–130+ per day—driven by active blockades, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, projectile incidents, and widespread use of “dark” AIS-disabled routes.
Recent developments, including the collapse of the June ceasefire, renewed strikes, and August 25 Iran-Oman talks on temporary corridors and mine clearance, have produced only marginal rebounds followed by renewed suppression, with thousands of sailors and hundreds of vessels still stranded. These dynamics keep near-term resolution probabilities low while reinforcing trader consensus around sustained disruption through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
वॉल्यूम
$367,246समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 8, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, supporting the 64.5% market-implied probability of no return to normal traffic in 2026.** Daily transits remain at roughly 10–20 vessels or lower—about 90% below pre-conflict baselines of 90–130+ per day—driven by active blockades, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, projectile incidents, and widespread use of “dark” AIS-disabled routes. Recent developments, including the collapse of the June ceasefire, renewed strikes, and August 25 Iran-Oman talks on temporary corridors and mine clearance, have produced only marginal rebounds followed by renewed suppression, with thousands of sailors and hundreds of vessels still stranded. These dynamics keep near-term resolution probabilities low while reinforcing trader consensus around sustained disruption through year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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