Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 due to the absence of any legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit presidential induction authority, a step required since the all-volunteer force began in 1973. Recent congressional action focused solely on automating Selective Service registration via the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, without advancing conscription measures, amid sustained reliance on volunteer recruitment and bipartisan resistance to compulsory service. Ongoing conflicts have prompted statements keeping options open but produced no vote counts or executive actions toward activation. A major escalation in a theater such as the Middle East or East Asia that demands rapid force expansion beyond volunteer capacity could still prompt Congress to consider authorization before year-end.