A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event currently drives trader expectations for September 2026 global temperatures, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6°C by late August and models projecting a very strong peak (over 90% chance of +2.0°C or greater) in October–December. This builds on background anthropogenic warming and follows 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 among the top three, with El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures expected to elevate late-2026 monthly values. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest (57%) over first (36%) or third (25.5%) due to the event’s timing and strength relative to historical analogs, though internal variability and dataset differences introduce uncertainty in exact September ranking ahead of official NOAA and NASA releases.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयासितंबर 2026 रिकॉर्ड पर पहला, दूसरा या तीसरा सबसे गर्म?
सितंबर 2026 रिकॉर्ड पर पहला, दूसरा या तीसरा सबसे गर्म?
दूसरा सबसे गर्म 57%
चौथा या उससे नीचे 40%
सबसे गर्म 36%
तीसरा सबसे गर्म 26%
नया
नया
30 सित, 2026
सबसे गर्म
36%
दूसरा सबसे गर्म
57%
तीसरा सबसे गर्म
26%
चौथा या उससे नीचे
40%
दूसरा सबसे गर्म 57%
चौथा या उससे नीचे 40%
सबसे गर्म 36%
तीसरा सबसे गर्म 26%
नया
नया
30 सित, 2026
सबसे गर्म
$273 वॉल्यूम
36%
दूसरा सबसे गर्म
$0 वॉल्यूम
57%
तीसरा सबसे गर्म
$0 वॉल्यूम
26%
चौथा या उससे नीचे
$250 वॉल्यूम
40%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event currently drives trader expectations for September 2026 global temperatures, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6°C by late August and models projecting a very strong peak (over 90% chance of +2.0°C or greater) in October–December. This builds on background anthropogenic warming and follows 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 among the top three, with El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures expected to elevate late-2026 monthly values. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest (57%) over first (36%) or third (25.5%) due to the event’s timing and strength relative to historical analogs, though internal variability and dataset differences introduce uncertainty in exact September ranking ahead of official NOAA and NASA releases.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$523समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event currently drives trader expectations for September 2026 global temperatures, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6°C by late August and models projecting a very strong peak (over 90% chance of +2.0°C or greater) in October–December. This builds on background anthropogenic warming and follows 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 among the top three, with El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures expected to elevate late-2026 monthly values. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest (57%) over first (36%) or third (25.5%) due to the event’s timing and strength relative to historical analogs, though internal variability and dataset differences introduce uncertainty in exact September ranking ahead of official NOAA and NASA releases.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
वॉल्यूम
$523समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event currently drives trader expectations for September 2026 global temperatures, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6°C by late August and models projecting a very strong peak (over 90% chance of +2.0°C or greater) in October–December. This builds on background anthropogenic warming and follows 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 among the top three, with El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures expected to elevate late-2026 monthly values. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest (57%) over first (36%) or third (25.5%) due to the event’s timing and strength relative to historical analogs, though internal variability and dataset differences introduce uncertainty in exact September ranking ahead of official NOAA and NASA releases.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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