Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1°C by mid-July 2026 and forecasts for a very strong event persisting through year-end, combine with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate global temperatures. This setup supports the market-implied odds near 54% for the 1st-hottest outcome and 53% for 2nd-hottest on August 1–3, reflecting high baseline warmth from the developing El Niño and recent monthly rankings (e.g., May 2026 as the second-warmest on record). Daily global temperature rankings remain closely contested because short-term atmospheric variability, regional heat domes, and differences across datasets (NOAA, NASA, Copernicus) can shift exact daily anomalies by fractions of a degree. Traders weigh these uncertainties against the strong seasonal signal favoring top-tier warmth, with new observational releases and model updates expected to refine probabilities as the period unfolds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 1 अगस्त, 2 अगस्त, 3 अगस्त रिकॉर्ड पर सबसे गर्म?
2026 1 अगस्त, 2 अगस्त, 3 अगस्त रिकॉर्ड पर सबसे गर्म?
1st hottest 55%
2nd hottest 53%
4th or lower 44%
3rd hottest 23%
नया
नया
31 अग, 2026
1st hottest
55%
2nd hottest
53%
3rd hottest
23%
4th or lower
44%
1st hottest 55%
2nd hottest 53%
4th or lower 44%
3rd hottest 23%
नया
नया
31 अग, 2026
1st hottest
$1 वॉल्यूम
55%
2nd hottest
$1 वॉल्यूम
53%
3rd hottest
$36 वॉल्यूम
23%
4th or lower
$35 वॉल्यूम
44%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1°C by mid-July 2026 and forecasts for a very strong event persisting through year-end, combine with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate global temperatures. This setup supports the market-implied odds near 54% for the 1st-hottest outcome and 53% for 2nd-hottest on August 1–3, reflecting high baseline warmth from the developing El Niño and recent monthly rankings (e.g., May 2026 as the second-warmest on record). Daily global temperature rankings remain closely contested because short-term atmospheric variability, regional heat domes, and differences across datasets (NOAA, NASA, Copernicus) can shift exact daily anomalies by fractions of a degree. Traders weigh these uncertainties against the strong seasonal signal favoring top-tier warmth, with new observational releases and model updates expected to refine probabilities as the period unfolds.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$73समाप्ति तिथि
1 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1°C by mid-July 2026 and forecasts for a very strong event persisting through year-end, combine with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate global temperatures. This setup supports the market-implied odds near 54% for the 1st-hottest outcome and 53% for 2nd-hottest on August 1–3, reflecting high baseline warmth from the developing El Niño and recent monthly rankings (e.g., May 2026 as the second-warmest on record). Daily global temperature rankings remain closely contested because short-term atmospheric variability, regional heat domes, and differences across datasets (NOAA, NASA, Copernicus) can shift exact daily anomalies by fractions of a degree. Traders weigh these uncertainties against the strong seasonal signal favoring top-tier warmth, with new observational releases and model updates expected to refine probabilities as the period unfolds.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
वॉल्यूम
$73समाप्ति तिथि
1 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1°C by mid-July 2026 and forecasts for a very strong event persisting through year-end, combine with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate global temperatures. This setup supports the market-implied odds near 54% for the 1st-hottest outcome and 53% for 2nd-hottest on August 1–3, reflecting high baseline warmth from the developing El Niño and recent monthly rankings (e.g., May 2026 as the second-warmest on record). Daily global temperature rankings remain closely contested because short-term atmospheric variability, regional heat domes, and differences across datasets (NOAA, NASA, Copernicus) can shift exact daily anomalies by fractions of a degree. Traders weigh these uncertainties against the strong seasonal signal favoring top-tier warmth, with new observational releases and model updates expected to refine probabilities as the period unfolds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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