Multiple intense heatwaves have gripped France since late May 2026, shattering national temperature records and driving the strong market consensus around an 84.5% implied probability. June delivered western Europe’s hottest month on record, with France posting its highest-ever daily national average on consecutive days—peaking at 30.0°C—and local highs reaching 44.3°C, eclipsing marks from 2003 and 2019. Successive alerts through July and into August, including a fifth heatwave forecast, have compounded the extreme conditions amid drought and elevated fire risk. Traders are pricing in the likelihood that these sustained anomalies will make the full June–August period the warmest on record, with only an unusually cool finish capable of altering the outcome.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या गर्मी 2026 रिकॉर्ड पर फ्रांस की सबसे गर्म गर्मी होगी?
क्या गर्मी 2026 रिकॉर्ड पर फ्रांस की सबसे गर्म गर्मी होगी?
हाँ
84% संभावना
नया
नया
1 अक्टू, 2026
हाँ
84% संभावना
नया
नया
1 अक्टू, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No".
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.Multiple intense heatwaves have gripped France since late May 2026, shattering national temperature records and driving the strong market consensus around an 84.5% implied probability. June delivered western Europe’s hottest month on record, with France posting its highest-ever daily national average on consecutive days—peaking at 30.0°C—and local highs reaching 44.3°C, eclipsing marks from 2003 and 2019. Successive alerts through July and into August, including a fifth heatwave forecast, have compounded the extreme conditions amid drought and elevated fire risk. Traders are pricing in the likelihood that these sustained anomalies will make the full June–August period the warmest on record, with only an unusually cool finish capable of altering the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No".
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 12, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$8समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 12, 2026, 11:18 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No".
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.Multiple intense heatwaves have gripped France since late May 2026, shattering national temperature records and driving the strong market consensus around an 84.5% implied probability. June delivered western Europe’s hottest month on record, with France posting its highest-ever daily national average on consecutive days—peaking at 30.0°C—and local highs reaching 44.3°C, eclipsing marks from 2003 and 2019. Successive alerts through July and into August, including a fifth heatwave forecast, have compounded the extreme conditions amid drought and elevated fire risk. Traders are pricing in the likelihood that these sustained anomalies will make the full June–August period the warmest on record, with only an unusually cool finish capable of altering the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No".
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.
वॉल्यूम
$8समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 12, 2026, 11:18 AM ETMultiple intense heatwaves have gripped France since late May 2026, shattering national temperature records and driving the strong market consensus around an 84.5% implied probability. June delivered western Europe’s hottest month on record, with France posting its highest-ever daily national average on consecutive days—peaking at 30.0°C—and local highs reaching 44.3°C, eclipsing marks from 2003 and 2019. Successive alerts through July and into August, including a fifth heatwave forecast, have compounded the extreme conditions amid drought and elevated fire risk. Traders are pricing in the likelihood that these sustained anomalies will make the full June–August period the warmest on record, with only an unusually cool finish capable of altering the outcome.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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