Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project 2026 U.S. real GDP expansion of 1.9–2.4 percent, anchored by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.5 percent. Recent data reinforce this outlook: Q2 growth registered 1.5 percent annualized, Q3 nowcasts hover around 2.3 percent, and leading indicators show no contraction signals. Elevated energy prices and tariff effects have tempered momentum but not derailed expansion, keeping recession odds below 25 percent in market-implied measures. Tail risks remain limited but include sharper geopolitical energy shocks, an abrupt AI capex reversal, or unexpected inflation spikes that could force tighter monetary policy and tip quarterly readings negative.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
हाँ
2% संभावना
$33,280 वॉल्यूम
$33,280 वॉल्यूम
28 जन, 2027
हाँ
2% संभावना
$33,280 वॉल्यूम
$33,280 वॉल्यूम
28 जन, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project 2026 U.S. real GDP expansion of 1.9–2.4 percent, anchored by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.5 percent. Recent data reinforce this outlook: Q2 growth registered 1.5 percent annualized, Q3 nowcasts hover around 2.3 percent, and leading indicators show no contraction signals. Elevated energy prices and tariff effects have tempered momentum but not derailed expansion, keeping recession odds below 25 percent in market-implied measures. Tail risks remain limited but include sharper geopolitical energy shocks, an abrupt AI capex reversal, or unexpected inflation spikes that could force tighter monetary policy and tip quarterly readings negative.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$33,280समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project 2026 U.S. real GDP expansion of 1.9–2.4 percent, anchored by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.5 percent. Recent data reinforce this outlook: Q2 growth registered 1.5 percent annualized, Q3 nowcasts hover around 2.3 percent, and leading indicators show no contraction signals. Elevated energy prices and tariff effects have tempered momentum but not derailed expansion, keeping recession odds below 25 percent in market-implied measures. Tail risks remain limited but include sharper geopolitical energy shocks, an abrupt AI capex reversal, or unexpected inflation spikes that could force tighter monetary policy and tip quarterly readings negative.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$33,280समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project 2026 U.S. real GDP expansion of 1.9–2.4 percent, anchored by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.5 percent. Recent data reinforce this outlook: Q2 growth registered 1.5 percent annualized, Q3 nowcasts hover around 2.3 percent, and leading indicators show no contraction signals. Elevated energy prices and tariff effects have tempered momentum but not derailed expansion, keeping recession odds below 25 percent in market-implied measures. Tail risks remain limited but include sharper geopolitical energy shocks, an abrupt AI capex reversal, or unexpected inflation spikes that could force tighter monetary policy and tip quarterly readings negative.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न