China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5-5%, reaffirmed during the March policy sessions, continues to anchor trader expectations, reinforced by consensus forecasts from the IMF, OECD, and major banks that cluster near 4.5%. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion, with Q2 decelerating to 4.3% year-over-year due to softening domestic demand and property weakness, though manufacturing exports and high-tech investment provided support. This trajectory, combined with expectations for measured fiscal and monetary easing to sustain momentum without overheating, has concentrated implied probabilities heavily on the 4.0-5.0% band. Outliers remain low-probability because sustained outcomes below 4% or above 5% would require sharper policy shifts or external shocks not evident in current indicators.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 6.7%
8.0–9.0% 1.4%
9.0%+ 1.2%
$879,899 वॉल्यूम
$879,899 वॉल्यूम
30 जन, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
89%
5.0–6.0%
7%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
1%
4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 6.7%
8.0–9.0% 1.4%
9.0%+ 1.2%
$879,899 वॉल्यूम
$879,899 वॉल्यूम
30 जन, 2026
<1.0%
$64,833 वॉल्यूम
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$74,124 वॉल्यूम
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$44,776 वॉल्यूम
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$81,005 वॉल्यूम
1%
4.0–5.0%
$220,228 वॉल्यूम
89%
5.0–6.0%
$80,276 वॉल्यूम
7%
6.0-7.0%
$83,563 वॉल्यूम
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$62,549 वॉल्यूम
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$53,031 वॉल्यूम
1%
9.0%+
$115,513 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5-5%, reaffirmed during the March policy sessions, continues to anchor trader expectations, reinforced by consensus forecasts from the IMF, OECD, and major banks that cluster near 4.5%. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion, with Q2 decelerating to 4.3% year-over-year due to softening domestic demand and property weakness, though manufacturing exports and high-tech investment provided support. This trajectory, combined with expectations for measured fiscal and monetary easing to sustain momentum without overheating, has concentrated implied probabilities heavily on the 4.0-5.0% band. Outliers remain low-probability because sustained outcomes below 4% or above 5% would require sharper policy shifts or external shocks not evident in current indicators.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$879,899समाप्ति तिथि
31 जन, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5-5%, reaffirmed during the March policy sessions, continues to anchor trader expectations, reinforced by consensus forecasts from the IMF, OECD, and major banks that cluster near 4.5%. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion, with Q2 decelerating to 4.3% year-over-year due to softening domestic demand and property weakness, though manufacturing exports and high-tech investment provided support. This trajectory, combined with expectations for measured fiscal and monetary easing to sustain momentum without overheating, has concentrated implied probabilities heavily on the 4.0-5.0% band. Outliers remain low-probability because sustained outcomes below 4% or above 5% would require sharper policy shifts or external shocks not evident in current indicators.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
वॉल्यूम
$879,899समाप्ति तिथि
31 जन, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5-5%, reaffirmed during the March policy sessions, continues to anchor trader expectations, reinforced by consensus forecasts from the IMF, OECD, and major banks that cluster near 4.5%. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion, with Q2 decelerating to 4.3% year-over-year due to softening domestic demand and property weakness, though manufacturing exports and high-tech investment provided support. This trajectory, combined with expectations for measured fiscal and monetary easing to sustain momentum without overheating, has concentrated implied probabilities heavily on the 4.0-5.0% band. Outliers remain low-probability because sustained outcomes below 4% or above 5% would require sharper policy shifts or external shocks not evident in current indicators.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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