Recent forecasts for Warsaw indicate nighttime lows near 10–13°C under partly clear conditions, but model runs show notable divergence in cloud cover and advection patterns over the next 48 hours that could push minimum temperatures either below 8°C with strong radiative cooling or above 16°C if warmer air advects in. This uncertainty, typical for late-summer continental regimes where high-pressure systems can produce sharp diurnal swings, underpins the near-even market split between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes. Traders appear to weigh official guidance from sources like the Polish Institute of Meteorology against ensemble spreads, recognizing that even modest shifts in wind direction or overnight cloudiness can alter the recorded minimum by several degrees before the market resolves.