Persistent cloud cover, widespread showers, and high humidity associated with a tropical air mass are limiting overnight radiative cooling across Miami, keeping minimum temperatures elevated relative to the long-term August 30 average low of 77.5 °F. Official NHC/NOAA guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate an overnight low near 81 °F under mostly overcast skies and easterly flow, with only modest variability from exact rain timing or brief clear spells. This scientific setup underpins the market’s concentration on the 78–81 °F range, where traders assign roughly 76 % combined implied probability, while colder outcomes remain low-probability given the absence of stronger high-pressure ridging or drier air advection. Updated model runs tonight will refine the precise minimum before resolution.