Recent numerical weather model runs from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate minimum temperatures in Chongqing on August 24 will likely settle near 26–27°C, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, elevated dew points near 25°C, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under humid, partly cloudy conditions with scattered thunderstorms. Afternoon convection and urban heat retention have kept recent overnight lows elevated in the mid- to upper-20s°C, consistent with August climatology for the region. Market odds clustered around 27–29°C or higher reflect uncertainty in exact timing of any evening showers, which could modestly enhance cooling, while lower-probability outcomes below 25°C would require stronger cold-air advection absent from current guidance. Updated forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration ahead of the overnight period represent the key near-term data point for traders.