Recent official forecasts from the Chongqing Meteorological Service and international models indicate a high near 37°C for August 24, with scattered afternoon thunderstorms and cloud cover expected to moderate peak readings amid the city's subtropical summer pattern. Recent observations show daily maxima of 37–38.8°C through August 22–23 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, supporting trader emphasis on the 36–38°C range where probabilities cluster tightly. Model spread arises from variable convective timing and urban heat effects, while historical August baselines near 35–36°C provide context for the current warm anomaly. Resolution hinges on the final 24-hour maximum reported by official stations.