Recent ensemble forecast runs from European and global models show a ridge of high pressure promoting mostly clear skies and light winds over central Poland, favoring peak temperatures of 28–31°C on August 3 in Warsaw. This range aligns with climatological peaks for early August while incorporating modest urban heat-island amplification. Key differentiating factors include afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth, exact timing of any thin high cloud, and small variations in 850 hPa temperatures across model members, which create the narrow spread seen in market-implied odds. Updated high-resolution runs from the ECMWF and GFS, expected within the next 24 hours, will further constrain the precise maximum before the market resolves.