Forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration project Beijing's August 1 high near 35–36 °C under hot, humid subtropical conditions, with southwesterly flow and high dew points supporting peak readings in that narrow band. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms may briefly suppress temperatures or allow brief spikes depending on timing and coverage, creating the tight split between 35 °C and 36 °C outcomes that together hold 70 % implied probability. Official guidance highlights possible 1–2 °C variability from urban heat-island effects, wind shifts, and model resolution of convective timing, while historical August averages near 31 °C underscore the current elevated anomaly. Updated midday observations and evening model runs will refine the exact maximum before resolution.