Current forecast consensus from the Israel Meteorological Service and multiple global models centers on a daily maximum of 31–33°C for Tel Aviv on August 24, aligning closely with the long-term August average and supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward the 32°C (33.5%) and 33°C (59.0%) outcomes. Typical late-summer conditions feature stable high pressure, light westerly flow, and moderating sea breezes from the Mediterranean that cap afternoon heating while clear skies promote radiational warming. Model spreads remain narrow, with low probability of exceeding 34°C or falling below 31°C given the absence of anomalous heat advection or synoptic shifts in recent runs. Traders have priced these near-term guidance updates into the implied probabilities, reflecting the resolution criteria based on official observations at Ben Gurion International Airport.