Recent polling for Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential contest shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holding a lead in the high 30s to low 40s percent, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the low-to-mid 30s, with several right-leaning candidates including Augusto Cury (Avante) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) splitting the opposition. This fragmentation, combined with persistent regional and demographic divides, has kept Lula's projected share within a narrow band and prevented any candidate from approaching a first-round majority. Trader pricing across the provided buckets reflects expectations that late-campaign turnout, vote consolidation on the right, and any final economic or legal developments could shift the incumbent several points in either direction before ballots are cast.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया44%+ 39%
41-44% 25%
38-41% 24%
35-38% 8%
नया
नया
4 अक्टू, 2026
35% से कम
3%
35-38%
8%
38-41%
24%
41-44%
25%
44%+
44%
44%+ 39%
41-44% 25%
38-41% 24%
35-38% 8%
नया
नया
4 अक्टू, 2026
35% से कम
$184 वॉल्यूम
3%
35-38%
$159 वॉल्यूम
8%
38-41%
$132 वॉल्यूम
24%
41-44%
$378 वॉल्यूम
25%
44%+
$507 वॉल्यूम
44%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential contest shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holding a lead in the high 30s to low 40s percent, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the low-to-mid 30s, with several right-leaning candidates including Augusto Cury (Avante) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) splitting the opposition. This fragmentation, combined with persistent regional and demographic divides, has kept Lula's projected share within a narrow band and prevented any candidate from approaching a first-round majority. Trader pricing across the provided buckets reflects expectations that late-campaign turnout, vote consolidation on the right, and any final economic or legal developments could shift the incumbent several points in either direction before ballots are cast.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,360समाप्ति तिथि
5 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential contest shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holding a lead in the high 30s to low 40s percent, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the low-to-mid 30s, with several right-leaning candidates including Augusto Cury (Avante) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) splitting the opposition. This fragmentation, combined with persistent regional and demographic divides, has kept Lula's projected share within a narrow band and prevented any candidate from approaching a first-round majority. Trader pricing across the provided buckets reflects expectations that late-campaign turnout, vote consolidation on the right, and any final economic or legal developments could shift the incumbent several points in either direction before ballots are cast.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
वॉल्यूम
$1,360समाप्ति तिथि
5 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential contest shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holding a lead in the high 30s to low 40s percent, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the low-to-mid 30s, with several right-leaning candidates including Augusto Cury (Avante) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) splitting the opposition. This fragmentation, combined with persistent regional and demographic divides, has kept Lula's projected share within a narrow band and prevented any candidate from approaching a first-round majority. Trader pricing across the provided buckets reflects expectations that late-campaign turnout, vote consolidation on the right, and any final economic or legal developments could shift the incumbent several points in either direction before ballots are cast.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयासंबंधित
क्या फ्लावियो बोल्सोनारो 2026 के ब्राज़ीलियाई राष्ट्रपति चुनाव के पहले चरण में वैध वोटों में से 39% या अधिक जीतेंगे?
63%
हाँ
क्या रेनेन सैंटोस 2026 के ब्राज़ीलियाई राष्ट्रपति चुनाव के पहले दौर में वैध वोटों में से 4% से 6% के बीच जीतेंगे?
33%
हाँ
क्या ऑगस्टो क्यूरी 2026 के ब्राज़ीलियाई राष्ट्रपति चुनाव के पहले दौर में वैध वोटों का 6% या उससे अधिक जीतेंगे?
38%
हाँ
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