Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, including lethal strikes in mid-August, combined with elevated war-risk insurance premiums above 1% of hull value, have suppressed laden transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait while prompting more dark (AIS-off) movements and selective rerouting. Weekly aggregates from MarineTraffic and JMIC show daily averages fluctuating between roughly 25–40 vessels, with commodity-specific counts often in the low 30s amid partial Suez resumption by carriers like MSC and Cosco. This volatility, driven by shifting attack intensity and compliance incentives, underpins the tight contest between the 30–34 and 25–29 brackets as month-end resolution nears, with lower-probability tails reflecting baseline normalization risks or further escalation.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाअगस्त के अंत में बाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य से गुजरने वाले जहाजों का औसत #?
अगस्त के अंत में बाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य से गुजरने वाले जहाजों का औसत #?
30-34 39%
25-29 37%
<25 11.8%
35-39 11%
$28,559 वॉल्यूम
$28,559 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
<25
12%
25-29
37%
30-34
39%
35-39
11%
40+
3%
30-34 39%
25-29 37%
<25 11.8%
35-39 11%
$28,559 वॉल्यूम
$28,559 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
<25
$4,897 वॉल्यूम
12%
25-29
$6,816 वॉल्यूम
37%
30-34
$6,794 वॉल्यूम
39%
35-39
$4,148 वॉल्यूम
11%
40+
$5,905 वॉल्यूम
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, including lethal strikes in mid-August, combined with elevated war-risk insurance premiums above 1% of hull value, have suppressed laden transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait while prompting more dark (AIS-off) movements and selective rerouting. Weekly aggregates from MarineTraffic and JMIC show daily averages fluctuating between roughly 25–40 vessels, with commodity-specific counts often in the low 30s amid partial Suez resumption by carriers like MSC and Cosco. This volatility, driven by shifting attack intensity and compliance incentives, underpins the tight contest between the 30–34 and 25–29 brackets as month-end resolution nears, with lower-probability tails reflecting baseline normalization risks or further escalation.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$28,559समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, including lethal strikes in mid-August, combined with elevated war-risk insurance premiums above 1% of hull value, have suppressed laden transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait while prompting more dark (AIS-off) movements and selective rerouting. Weekly aggregates from MarineTraffic and JMIC show daily averages fluctuating between roughly 25–40 vessels, with commodity-specific counts often in the low 30s amid partial Suez resumption by carriers like MSC and Cosco. This volatility, driven by shifting attack intensity and compliance incentives, underpins the tight contest between the 30–34 and 25–29 brackets as month-end resolution nears, with lower-probability tails reflecting baseline normalization risks or further escalation.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
वॉल्यूम
$28,559समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, including lethal strikes in mid-August, combined with elevated war-risk insurance premiums above 1% of hull value, have suppressed laden transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait while prompting more dark (AIS-off) movements and selective rerouting. Weekly aggregates from MarineTraffic and JMIC show daily averages fluctuating between roughly 25–40 vessels, with commodity-specific counts often in the low 30s amid partial Suez resumption by carriers like MSC and Cosco. This volatility, driven by shifting attack intensity and compliance incentives, underpins the tight contest between the 30–34 and 25–29 brackets as month-end resolution nears, with lower-probability tails reflecting baseline normalization risks or further escalation.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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