Recent polling in Amapá shows a fragmented Senate field heading into the October 2026 vote, where voters select two candidates. Rayssa Furlan leads decisively with support often exceeding 50 percent, positioning the contest for second place as the primary focus of trader attention. Randolfe Rodrigues and Lucas Barreto remain the closest contenders in that slot, with surveys from July indicating them within a few points of each other amid shifting alliances involving parties such as PT, PSD, and União Brasil. Lower-polling names including Alliny Serrão and Acácio Favacho add further uncertainty. The tight implied probabilities reflect limited differentiation in recent surveys, local coalition dynamics, and the absence of major campaign events that could consolidate voter preferences before the final stretch.