Houthi territorial gains in Yemen, including the recent seizure of Perim Island, Mokha, and Dhubab, have driven a sharp but incomplete reduction in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings falling to around 15 on September 11 from 30 the prior day amid a declared maritime embargo on Saudi-linked vessels. This escalation, tied to broader regional conflict, has redirected Saudi crude exports—previously flowing at roughly 3.3 million barrels per day through the strait in June—toward longer Cape routes or Suez alternatives, lifting Brent crude toward $104–110 per barrel while sustaining limited tanker, bulk, and shadow-fleet activity. Market-implied odds reflect persistent though diminished volumes rather than outright closure, as compliant operators weigh war-risk premiums and rerouting costs against contractual obligations. Key near-term catalysts include further Houthi strikes, potential international naval responses, and weekly transit data from sources like Kpler or IMF PortWatch that could shift sentiment if averages approach single digits.