**Consistent polling deficits for the Tidö parties (Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats, and Liberals) throughout the 2026 campaign, combined with exit polls and preliminary results from the September 13 election, underpin trader consensus against a majority.** Surveys from mid-2026 onward showed the centre-left opposition bloc holding leads of 5–10+ points, translating to roughly 175–185 seats versus under 175 for the Tidö group in most projections. Late narrowing narrowed the gap to 3–5 points but left the Tidö parties short in SVT/Valu and Novus exit polls (opposition at 51.3%, Tidö at 46.8–47.0%). Supplementary counting of advance, postal, and overseas ballots has further reduced any remaining path, with models indicating the opposition lead is now effectively insurmountable for 175+ seats. Lingering uncertainty centers on the final certified totals and whether any bloc reaches an outright majority, though historical patterns and current margins limit realistic reversal scenarios.