Ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, including strikes that began in February 2026 and renewed clashes over Strait of Hormuz shipping in July and August, has kept diplomatic relations frozen. The United States maintains no physical embassy or consular presence in Iran, relying instead on Switzerland as protecting power amid repeated security alerts and reduced regional staffing. A June memorandum of understanding and subsequent extensions produced only temporary pauses in hostilities rather than full normalization or embassy restoration. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reopening this year reflects these barriers, though a comprehensive bilateral agreement resolving sanctions, nuclear issues, and maritime access before December 31 could still shift the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes États-Unis rouvriront-ils leur ambassade en Iran en 2026 ?
Les États-Unis rouvriront-ils leur ambassade en Iran en 2026 ?
Oui
5% chance
$158,294 Vol.
$158,294 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
5% chance
$158,294 Vol.
$158,294 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, including strikes that began in February 2026 and renewed clashes over Strait of Hormuz shipping in July and August, has kept diplomatic relations frozen. The United States maintains no physical embassy or consular presence in Iran, relying instead on Switzerland as protecting power amid repeated security alerts and reduced regional staffing. A June memorandum of understanding and subsequent extensions produced only temporary pauses in hostilities rather than full normalization or embassy restoration. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reopening this year reflects these barriers, though a comprehensive bilateral agreement resolving sanctions, nuclear issues, and maritime access before December 31 could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Volume
$158,294Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, including strikes that began in February 2026 and renewed clashes over Strait of Hormuz shipping in July and August, has kept diplomatic relations frozen. The United States maintains no physical embassy or consular presence in Iran, relying instead on Switzerland as protecting power amid repeated security alerts and reduced regional staffing. A June memorandum of understanding and subsequent extensions produced only temporary pauses in hostilities rather than full normalization or embassy restoration. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reopening this year reflects these barriers, though a comprehensive bilateral agreement resolving sanctions, nuclear issues, and maritime access before December 31 could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$158,294Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, including strikes that began in February 2026 and renewed clashes over Strait of Hormuz shipping in July and August, has kept diplomatic relations frozen. The United States maintains no physical embassy or consular presence in Iran, relying instead on Switzerland as protecting power amid repeated security alerts and reduced regional staffing. A June memorandum of understanding and subsequent extensions produced only temporary pauses in hostilities rather than full normalization or embassy restoration. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reopening this year reflects these barriers, though a comprehensive bilateral agreement resolving sanctions, nuclear issues, and maritime access before December 31 could still shift the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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