US officials have repeatedly distanced the administration from Reza Pahlavi, including public comments questioning his domestic support inside Iran and explicit statements that regime change under his leadership is not a goal. The June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding reinforced this stance by committing Washington to respect Iranian sovereignty and avoid interference in internal affairs, with no provision for recognizing an exiled opposition figure. These developments, following earlier military strikes and the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have solidified trader expectations against formal US recognition before the end of the year. A sudden, verifiable shift—such as an official State Department statement or presidential endorsement acknowledging Pahlavi as legitimate leader—remains the primary scenario that could still alter the outcome.