Typhoon Dolphin, having peaked as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon with sustained winds near 165 mph in late July, has since undergone multiple eyewall replacement cycles and rapid weakening over cooler waters and increasing shear. As of August 9, 2026, Joint Typhoon Warning Center data place the system north of Taiwan with central pressure at 959 hPa and maximum winds around 75-85 mph, tracking northwest toward eastern China for expected landfall as a Category 1-equivalent or weaker system. Official forecasts from JTWC and NOAA-aligned models show continued decay before any mainland contact, rendering Category 4+ intensity at landfall statistically improbable. The near-certain market consensus on “No” reflects this observed intensity trend and model agreement, though an unusually rapid reintensification over anomalously warm East China Sea waters remains a low-probability outlier scenario.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLe super typhon Dolphin touchera-t-il terre à la force de catégorie 4 ou plus ?
Le super typhon Dolphin touchera-t-il terre à la force de catégorie 4 ou plus ?
Oui
<1% chance
$16,912 Vol.
$16,912 Vol.
16 août 2026
Oui
<1% chance
$16,912 Vol.
$16,912 Vol.
16 août 2026
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Typhoon Dolphin, having peaked as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon with sustained winds near 165 mph in late July, has since undergone multiple eyewall replacement cycles and rapid weakening over cooler waters and increasing shear. As of August 9, 2026, Joint Typhoon Warning Center data place the system north of Taiwan with central pressure at 959 hPa and maximum winds around 75-85 mph, tracking northwest toward eastern China for expected landfall as a Category 1-equivalent or weaker system. Official forecasts from JTWC and NOAA-aligned models show continued decay before any mainland contact, rendering Category 4+ intensity at landfall statistically improbable. The near-certain market consensus on “No” reflects this observed intensity trend and model agreement, though an unusually rapid reintensification over anomalously warm East China Sea waters remains a low-probability outlier scenario.
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Marché ouvert : Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volume
$16,912Marché ouvert
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Typhoon Dolphin, having peaked as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon with sustained winds near 165 mph in late July, has since undergone multiple eyewall replacement cycles and rapid weakening over cooler waters and increasing shear. As of August 9, 2026, Joint Typhoon Warning Center data place the system north of Taiwan with central pressure at 959 hPa and maximum winds around 75-85 mph, tracking northwest toward eastern China for expected landfall as a Category 1-equivalent or weaker system. Official forecasts from JTWC and NOAA-aligned models show continued decay before any mainland contact, rendering Category 4+ intensity at landfall statistically improbable. The near-certain market consensus on “No” reflects this observed intensity trend and model agreement, though an unusually rapid reintensification over anomalously warm East China Sea waters remains a low-probability outlier scenario.
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Volume
$16,912Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Typhoon Dolphin, having peaked as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon with sustained winds near 165 mph in late July, has since undergone multiple eyewall replacement cycles and rapid weakening over cooler waters and increasing shear. As of August 9, 2026, Joint Typhoon Warning Center data place the system north of Taiwan with central pressure at 959 hPa and maximum winds around 75-85 mph, tracking northwest toward eastern China for expected landfall as a Category 1-equivalent or weaker system. Official forecasts from JTWC and NOAA-aligned models show continued decay before any mainland contact, rendering Category 4+ intensity at landfall statistically improbable. The near-certain market consensus on “No” reflects this observed intensity trend and model agreement, though an unusually rapid reintensification over anomalously warm East China Sea waters remains a low-probability outlier scenario.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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