The Islamic Republic's survival after 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but left the system intact under Mojtaba Khamenei, has anchored trader expectations that Reza Pahlavi will not assume leadership by year-end. Pahlavi positioned himself for a transitional role citing January protests and diaspora support, yet the Trump administration declined endorsement for regime change, while donor frustration, opposition fractures, and reported violence among some backers have undermined momentum. Tehran has responded with media campaigns and an indictment on security-related charges. With the regime demonstrating resilience through a June ceasefire and continued governance, skin-in-the-game pricing reflects low odds of Pahlavi securing power absent an unforeseen internal collapse or abrupt external policy reversal within the remaining months.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourReza Pahlavi dirigera-t-il l'Iran en 2026 ?
Reza Pahlavi dirigera-t-il l'Iran en 2026 ?
Oui
3% chance
$11,708,765 Vol.
$11,708,765 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
3% chance
$11,708,765 Vol.
$11,708,765 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic's survival after 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but left the system intact under Mojtaba Khamenei, has anchored trader expectations that Reza Pahlavi will not assume leadership by year-end. Pahlavi positioned himself for a transitional role citing January protests and diaspora support, yet the Trump administration declined endorsement for regime change, while donor frustration, opposition fractures, and reported violence among some backers have undermined momentum. Tehran has responded with media campaigns and an indictment on security-related charges. With the regime demonstrating resilience through a June ceasefire and continued governance, skin-in-the-game pricing reflects low odds of Pahlavi securing power absent an unforeseen internal collapse or abrupt external policy reversal within the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Volume
$11,708,765Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic's survival after 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but left the system intact under Mojtaba Khamenei, has anchored trader expectations that Reza Pahlavi will not assume leadership by year-end. Pahlavi positioned himself for a transitional role citing January protests and diaspora support, yet the Trump administration declined endorsement for regime change, while donor frustration, opposition fractures, and reported violence among some backers have undermined momentum. Tehran has responded with media campaigns and an indictment on security-related charges. With the regime demonstrating resilience through a June ceasefire and continued governance, skin-in-the-game pricing reflects low odds of Pahlavi securing power absent an unforeseen internal collapse or abrupt external policy reversal within the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,708,765Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic's survival after 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but left the system intact under Mojtaba Khamenei, has anchored trader expectations that Reza Pahlavi will not assume leadership by year-end. Pahlavi positioned himself for a transitional role citing January protests and diaspora support, yet the Trump administration declined endorsement for regime change, while donor frustration, opposition fractures, and reported violence among some backers have undermined momentum. Tehran has responded with media campaigns and an indictment on security-related charges. With the regime demonstrating resilience through a June ceasefire and continued governance, skin-in-the-game pricing reflects low odds of Pahlavi securing power absent an unforeseen internal collapse or abrupt external policy reversal within the remaining months.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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