Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, has remained outside the country for nearly five decades while positioning himself as a potential transitional leader for a secular democratic system following any collapse of the Islamic Republic. Trader sentiment on near-term entry reflects the absence of regime change despite 2026 U.S. and Israeli military operations that reportedly weakened leadership structures and infrastructure, followed by a ceasefire leaving core institutions intact. Pahlavi has outlined transition frameworks such as the Iran Prosperity Project and signaled readiness to return only after a successful popular uprising or orderly handover, yet he has faced donor concerns, opposition divisions, and limited external endorsement. Security risks during any return, procedural requirements for a referendum or constituent assembly, and domestic protests over economic issues continue to shape assessments of timelines.