Netanyahu publicly confirmed his candidacy for the October 27, 2026 Knesset election in late July, ending speculation of withdrawal even as polls show his Likud bloc hovering near or below the 61-seat threshold needed for a majority. The Knesset dissolution in mid-July left him heading an interim government amid coalition frictions, voter fatigue from extended conflicts, and opposition parties' repeated pledges against joining any Netanyahu-led coalition. Recent Likud primaries with modest turnout reinforced party continuity rather than internal challenges that might prompt an exit. Traders assess low probability of dropout given his record of navigating legal cases, security setbacks, and fragmented parliamentary math, though late developments such as coalition defections or polling shifts before the September party-list deadline could still alter positioning.