Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Likud projected at roughly 22–27 seats, well below its current 32 (or 36 including the New Hope merger). Sustained voter fatigue after the October 7 attacks, the prolonged security situation, and backlash from the judicial overhaul have eroded support for the party and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Opposition parties, notably Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar, have gained ground in surveys, while recent Likud primaries recorded low turnout around 53–54 percent amid internal slate battles. These trends underpin trader consensus on seat losses, though final results will depend on turnout, coalition dynamics, and any late shifts in the remaining campaign weeks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour88% chance
$11,128 Vol.
$11,128 Vol.
26 oct. 2026
88% chance
$11,128 Vol.
$11,128 Vol.
26 oct. 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Likud projected at roughly 22–27 seats, well below its current 32 (or 36 including the New Hope merger). Sustained voter fatigue after the October 7 attacks, the prolonged security situation, and backlash from the judicial overhaul have eroded support for the party and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Opposition parties, notably Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar, have gained ground in surveys, while recent Likud primaries recorded low turnout around 53–54 percent amid internal slate battles. These trends underpin trader consensus on seat losses, though final results will depend on turnout, coalition dynamics, and any late shifts in the remaining campaign weeks.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Marché ouvert : Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$11,128Date de fin
27 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Likud projected at roughly 22–27 seats, well below its current 32 (or 36 including the New Hope merger). Sustained voter fatigue after the October 7 attacks, the prolonged security situation, and backlash from the judicial overhaul have eroded support for the party and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Opposition parties, notably Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar, have gained ground in surveys, while recent Likud primaries recorded low turnout around 53–54 percent amid internal slate battles. These trends underpin trader consensus on seat losses, though final results will depend on turnout, coalition dynamics, and any late shifts in the remaining campaign weeks.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$11,128Date de fin
27 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Likud projected at roughly 22–27 seats, well below its current 32 (or 36 including the New Hope merger). Sustained voter fatigue after the October 7 attacks, the prolonged security situation, and backlash from the judicial overhaul have eroded support for the party and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Opposition parties, notably Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar, have gained ground in surveys, while recent Likud primaries recorded low turnout around 53–54 percent amid internal slate battles. These trends underpin trader consensus on seat losses, though final results will depend on turnout, coalition dynamics, and any late shifts in the remaining campaign weeks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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