Elon Musk’s departure from the Department of Government Efficiency in mid-2025, after the advisory body wound down without meeting aggressive savings targets, remains the dominant factor behind the market’s 93.3% “No” odds. Musk publicly described the experience as only “somewhat successful” and signaled he would not repeat it, redirecting efforts toward Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI operations alongside Republican midterm funding. Lingering frictions with the administration and Musk’s stated preference for private-sector influence over formal roles reinforce trader consensus. A late reversal could occur if Trump faces acute staffing needs or policy crises ahead of the 2026 midterms, but current dynamics make formal reentry improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
7% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 déc. 2026
Oui
7% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Elon Musk’s departure from the Department of Government Efficiency in mid-2025, after the advisory body wound down without meeting aggressive savings targets, remains the dominant factor behind the market’s 93.3% “No” odds. Musk publicly described the experience as only “somewhat successful” and signaled he would not repeat it, redirecting efforts toward Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI operations alongside Republican midterm funding. Lingering frictions with the administration and Musk’s stated preference for private-sector influence over formal roles reinforce trader consensus. A late reversal could occur if Trump faces acute staffing needs or policy crises ahead of the 2026 midterms, but current dynamics make formal reentry improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$9,666Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Elon Musk’s departure from the Department of Government Efficiency in mid-2025, after the advisory body wound down without meeting aggressive savings targets, remains the dominant factor behind the market’s 93.3% “No” odds. Musk publicly described the experience as only “somewhat successful” and signaled he would not repeat it, redirecting efforts toward Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI operations alongside Republican midterm funding. Lingering frictions with the administration and Musk’s stated preference for private-sector influence over formal roles reinforce trader consensus. A late reversal could occur if Trump faces acute staffing needs or policy crises ahead of the 2026 midterms, but current dynamics make formal reentry improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,666Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk’s departure from the Department of Government Efficiency in mid-2025, after the advisory body wound down without meeting aggressive savings targets, remains the dominant factor behind the market’s 93.3% “No” odds. Musk publicly described the experience as only “somewhat successful” and signaled he would not repeat it, redirecting efforts toward Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI operations alongside Republican midterm funding. Lingering frictions with the administration and Musk’s stated preference for private-sector influence over formal roles reinforce trader consensus. A late reversal could occur if Trump faces acute staffing needs or policy crises ahead of the 2026 midterms, but current dynamics make formal reentry improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes