Apple's long-standing practice of launching a new iPhone flagship each September underpins the 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Consistent annual cycles, reliable supply chain execution, and the absence of announced delays or major redesign shifts all reinforce trader consensus that the product will reach consumers before year-end. Historical timing places the event within weeks of the current date, leaving little room for deviation. Still, unforeseen component shortages, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or last-minute hardware revisions could push the launch into early 2027, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current verified patterns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
99% chance
$175,807 Vol.
$175,807 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
99% chance
$175,807 Vol.
$175,807 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing practice of launching a new iPhone flagship each September underpins the 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Consistent annual cycles, reliable supply chain execution, and the absence of announced delays or major redesign shifts all reinforce trader consensus that the product will reach consumers before year-end. Historical timing places the event within weeks of the current date, leaving little room for deviation. Still, unforeseen component shortages, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or last-minute hardware revisions could push the launch into early 2027, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current verified patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$175,807Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing practice of launching a new iPhone flagship each September underpins the 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Consistent annual cycles, reliable supply chain execution, and the absence of announced delays or major redesign shifts all reinforce trader consensus that the product will reach consumers before year-end. Historical timing places the event within weeks of the current date, leaving little room for deviation. Still, unforeseen component shortages, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or last-minute hardware revisions could push the launch into early 2027, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current verified patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$175,807Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing practice of launching a new iPhone flagship each September underpins the 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Consistent annual cycles, reliable supply chain execution, and the absence of announced delays or major redesign shifts all reinforce trader consensus that the product will reach consumers before year-end. Historical timing places the event within weeks of the current date, leaving little room for deviation. Still, unforeseen component shortages, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or last-minute hardware revisions could push the launch into early 2027, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current verified patterns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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