Recent high-level US-Iran diplomacy, anchored by the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum and June Switzerland talks led by Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, has established technical working groups on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz navigation. Persistent friction over Lebanon deconfliction, IAEA inspections, and implementation timelines has kept channels active through indirect Oman and Qatar routes into August. Trader assessments of attendance by December 31 reflect the 60-day MOU window's expiration, the potential for additional mediated rounds before year-end deadlines, and structural factors such as Senate oversight or executive continuity that could shape participation by senior officials.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$304,963 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Steve Witkoff
43%
Jared Kushner
41%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
42%
Abbas Araghchi
34%
Ishaq Dar
31%
J.D. Vance
31%
Kazem Gharibabadi
24%
Nick Stewart
20%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
18%
Badr ben Hamad Al Busaidi
17%
Rafael Grossi
17%
Mohammed ben Abdulrahman Al Thani
15%
Donald Trump
14%
Marco Rubio
13%
Masoud Pezeshkian
13%
Ahmad Vahidi
11%
Pete Hegseth
9%
Esmail Qaani
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
5%
$304,963 Vol.
Steve Witkoff
$17,730 Vol.
43%
Jared Kushner
$14,387 Vol.
41%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$11,943 Vol.
42%
Abbas Araghchi
$7,573 Vol.
34%
Ishaq Dar
$17,540 Vol.
31%
J.D. Vance
$20,976 Vol.
31%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$16,478 Vol.
24%
Nick Stewart
$11,128 Vol.
20%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$16,946 Vol.
18%
Badr ben Hamad Al Busaidi
$29,145 Vol.
17%
Rafael Grossi
$18,288 Vol.
17%
Mohammed ben Abdulrahman Al Thani
$28,743 Vol.
15%
Donald Trump
$7,456 Vol.
14%
Marco Rubio
$13,311 Vol.
13%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$19,279 Vol.
13%
Ahmad Vahidi
$7,856 Vol.
11%
Pete Hegseth
$15,413 Vol.
9%
Esmail Qaani
$10,890 Vol.
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$19,880 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent high-level US-Iran diplomacy, anchored by the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum and June Switzerland talks led by Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, has established technical working groups on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz navigation. Persistent friction over Lebanon deconfliction, IAEA inspections, and implementation timelines has kept channels active through indirect Oman and Qatar routes into August. Trader assessments of attendance by December 31 reflect the 60-day MOU window's expiration, the potential for additional mediated rounds before year-end deadlines, and structural factors such as Senate oversight or executive continuity that could shape participation by senior officials.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$304,963Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent high-level US-Iran diplomacy, anchored by the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum and June Switzerland talks led by Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, has established technical working groups on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz navigation. Persistent friction over Lebanon deconfliction, IAEA inspections, and implementation timelines has kept channels active through indirect Oman and Qatar routes into August. Trader assessments of attendance by December 31 reflect the 60-day MOU window's expiration, the potential for additional mediated rounds before year-end deadlines, and structural factors such as Senate oversight or executive continuity that could shape participation by senior officials.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$304,963Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent high-level US-Iran diplomacy, anchored by the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum and June Switzerland talks led by Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, has established technical working groups on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz navigation. Persistent friction over Lebanon deconfliction, IAEA inspections, and implementation timelines has kept channels active through indirect Oman and Qatar routes into August. Trader assessments of attendance by December 31 reflect the 60-day MOU window's expiration, the potential for additional mediated rounds before year-end deadlines, and structural factors such as Senate oversight or executive continuity that could shape participation by senior officials.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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