Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a consistent double-digit polling lead over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa following the August 4 primary, reflecting Virginia’s Democratic lean, Warner’s long tenure since 2009, and typical midterm dynamics favoring the out-party in a safe seat. Recent surveys from June placed Warner near 50-51 percent against Mizusawa in the low 30s, producing trader consensus around a sizable Democratic margin while distributing probability across 9-21+ point brackets due to uncertainty over turnout and late-cycle shifts. Low odds on a Republican victory or narrow result align with historical patterns for this state and limited campaign intensity so far. Key upcoming catalysts include voter mobilization efforts through early voting starting in September and any national political developments that could influence battleground participation before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDémocrate 21 %+ 32%
Démocrate 15-18 % 14%
Démocrate 9-12 % 13%
Démocrate 18-21 % 8.8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Republican 3%+
1%
Republican 0-3%
1%
Democrat 0-3%
1%
Democrat 3-6%
1%
Démocrate 6-9 %
4%
Démocrate 9-12 %
13%
Démocrate 12-15 %
7%
Démocrate 15-18 %
14%
Démocrate 18-21 %
9%
Démocrate 21 %+
32%
Démocrate 21 %+ 32%
Démocrate 15-18 % 14%
Démocrate 9-12 % 13%
Démocrate 18-21 % 8.8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Republican 3%+
$663 Vol.
1%
Republican 0-3%
$418 Vol.
1%
Democrat 0-3%
$751 Vol.
1%
Democrat 3-6%
$591 Vol.
1%
Démocrate 6-9 %
$628 Vol.
4%
Démocrate 9-12 %
$278 Vol.
13%
Démocrate 12-15 %
$228 Vol.
7%
Démocrate 15-18 %
$377 Vol.
14%
Démocrate 18-21 %
$336 Vol.
9%
Démocrate 21 %+
$1,554 Vol.
32%
The 2026 Virginia Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Virginia Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a consistent double-digit polling lead over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa following the August 4 primary, reflecting Virginia’s Democratic lean, Warner’s long tenure since 2009, and typical midterm dynamics favoring the out-party in a safe seat. Recent surveys from June placed Warner near 50-51 percent against Mizusawa in the low 30s, producing trader consensus around a sizable Democratic margin while distributing probability across 9-21+ point brackets due to uncertainty over turnout and late-cycle shifts. Low odds on a Republican victory or narrow result align with historical patterns for this state and limited campaign intensity so far. Key upcoming catalysts include voter mobilization efforts through early voting starting in September and any national political developments that could influence battleground participation before November 3.
The 2026 Virginia Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Virginia Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Virginia Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 4, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$5,825Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 2:44 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Virginia Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Virginia Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a consistent double-digit polling lead over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa following the August 4 primary, reflecting Virginia’s Democratic lean, Warner’s long tenure since 2009, and typical midterm dynamics favoring the out-party in a safe seat. Recent surveys from June placed Warner near 50-51 percent against Mizusawa in the low 30s, producing trader consensus around a sizable Democratic margin while distributing probability across 9-21+ point brackets due to uncertainty over turnout and late-cycle shifts. Low odds on a Republican victory or narrow result align with historical patterns for this state and limited campaign intensity so far. Key upcoming catalysts include voter mobilization efforts through early voting starting in September and any national political developments that could influence battleground participation before November 3.
The 2026 Virginia Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Virginia Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Virginia Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,825Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 2:44 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a consistent double-digit polling lead over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa following the August 4 primary, reflecting Virginia’s Democratic lean, Warner’s long tenure since 2009, and typical midterm dynamics favoring the out-party in a safe seat. Recent surveys from June placed Warner near 50-51 percent against Mizusawa in the low 30s, producing trader consensus around a sizable Democratic margin while distributing probability across 9-21+ point brackets due to uncertainty over turnout and late-cycle shifts. Low odds on a Republican victory or narrow result align with historical patterns for this state and limited campaign intensity so far. Key upcoming catalysts include voter mobilization efforts through early voting starting in September and any national political developments that could influence battleground participation before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection sénatoriale de 2026 en Virginie-Occidentale avec une avance de 30 à 35 % ?
17%
Oui
Le candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection de la Chambre VA-06 en 2026 avec 40 % d'avance ou plus ?
41%
Oui
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-01 House election by 0%-3%?
14%
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