Texas's 32nd congressional district underwent redistricting in 2025 that added heavily Republican territory from suburban and rural areas, shifting it from a Democratic-leaning seat into one rated Likely Republican or Solid Republican by forecasters including the Cook Political Report. The open seat drew a crowded GOP primary that produced nominee Jace Yarbrough after a May runoff and withdrawal by opponent Ryan Binkley; Democrat Dan Barrios emerged from his party's primary. With the November 3 general election approaching and no major late developments altering the map or nominee dynamics, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 76.5% implied probability of holding the seat, consistent with the district's updated partisan voting index and historical performance in comparable redrawn Texas districts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre TX-32
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre TX-32
$28,265 Vol.
$28,265 Vol.
4 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
77%
Parti démocrate
25%
$28,265 Vol.
$28,265 Vol.
4 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$26,790 Vol.
77%
Parti démocrate
$1,475 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 32nd congressional district underwent redistricting in 2025 that added heavily Republican territory from suburban and rural areas, shifting it from a Democratic-leaning seat into one rated Likely Republican or Solid Republican by forecasters including the Cook Political Report. The open seat drew a crowded GOP primary that produced nominee Jace Yarbrough after a May runoff and withdrawal by opponent Ryan Binkley; Democrat Dan Barrios emerged from his party's primary. With the November 3 general election approaching and no major late developments altering the map or nominee dynamics, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 76.5% implied probability of holding the seat, consistent with the district's updated partisan voting index and historical performance in comparable redrawn Texas districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$28,265Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 32nd congressional district underwent redistricting in 2025 that added heavily Republican territory from suburban and rural areas, shifting it from a Democratic-leaning seat into one rated Likely Republican or Solid Republican by forecasters including the Cook Political Report. The open seat drew a crowded GOP primary that produced nominee Jace Yarbrough after a May runoff and withdrawal by opponent Ryan Binkley; Democrat Dan Barrios emerged from his party's primary. With the November 3 general election approaching and no major late developments altering the map or nominee dynamics, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 76.5% implied probability of holding the seat, consistent with the district's updated partisan voting index and historical performance in comparable redrawn Texas districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,265Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 32nd congressional district underwent redistricting in 2025 that added heavily Republican territory from suburban and rural areas, shifting it from a Democratic-leaning seat into one rated Likely Republican or Solid Republican by forecasters including the Cook Political Report. The open seat drew a crowded GOP primary that produced nominee Jace Yarbrough after a May runoff and withdrawal by opponent Ryan Binkley; Democrat Dan Barrios emerged from his party's primary. With the November 3 general election approaching and no major late developments altering the map or nominee dynamics, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 76.5% implied probability of holding the seat, consistent with the district's updated partisan voting index and historical performance in comparable redrawn Texas districts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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