Darline Graham Nordone holds a commanding lead in Lexington County for the August 25 Republican Senate runoff due to her strong first-round performance there, where she finished first as a local resident and interim senator backed by President Trump’s endorsement and substantial advertising outlays exceeding $1.4 million. Norman drew far less support in the county during the August 11 primary and has concentrated his base in Upstate areas, limiting his reach in this Midlands stronghold. Early voting and the short campaign window further favor the frontrunner’s established organization and name recognition among local Republican voters. A Norman upset would require unusually high crossover turnout from third-place supporters or a sharp shift in county dynamics, both of which appear unlikely based on primary results and spending patterns.