Rhode Island's solidly Democratic electorate and history of electing only Democrats to the governorship since 2006 anchor trader expectations for a substantial but not overwhelming margin in the November general election. The September 9 Democratic primary between incumbent Dan McKee and frontrunner Helena Foulkes remains the key near-term catalyst, with recent polls showing Foulkes ahead by double digits amid McKee's low approval and the party's decision not to endorse. On the Republican side, the primary between Elaine Pelino and Aaron Guckian features high undecided shares, while independent Ken Block draws consistent general-election support in hypotheticals. These dynamics produce clustered probabilities around mid-20% Democrat margins, reflecting the state's partisan baseline tempered by potential primary volatility, candidate-specific turnout, and any late shifts in the three-way general-election contest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDémocrate 20-25 % 19.8%
Démocrate 15-20 % 17%
Démocrate 30-35 % 13.9%
Démocrate 25-30 % 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Republican Wins
1%
Démocrate 0-5%
3%
Démocrate 5-10 %
4%
Démocrate 10-15 %
12%
Démocrate 15-20 %
17%
Démocrate 20-25 %
20%
Démocrate 25-30 %
14%
Démocrate 30-35 %
14%
Démocrate +35 %
13%
Démocrate 20-25 % 19.8%
Démocrate 15-20 % 17%
Démocrate 30-35 % 13.9%
Démocrate 25-30 % 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Republican Wins
$331 Vol.
1%
Démocrate 0-5%
$134 Vol.
3%
Démocrate 5-10 %
$139 Vol.
4%
Démocrate 10-15 %
$271 Vol.
12%
Démocrate 15-20 %
$147 Vol.
17%
Démocrate 20-25 %
$182 Vol.
20%
Démocrate 25-30 %
$1,777 Vol.
14%
Démocrate 30-35 %
$273 Vol.
14%
Démocrate +35 %
$164 Vol.
13%
The 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rhode Island's solidly Democratic electorate and history of electing only Democrats to the governorship since 2006 anchor trader expectations for a substantial but not overwhelming margin in the November general election. The September 9 Democratic primary between incumbent Dan McKee and frontrunner Helena Foulkes remains the key near-term catalyst, with recent polls showing Foulkes ahead by double digits amid McKee's low approval and the party's decision not to endorse. On the Republican side, the primary between Elaine Pelino and Aaron Guckian features high undecided shares, while independent Ken Block draws consistent general-election support in hypotheticals. These dynamics produce clustered probabilities around mid-20% Democrat margins, reflecting the state's partisan baseline tempered by potential primary volatility, candidate-specific turnout, and any late shifts in the three-way general-election contest.
The 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 5, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volume
$3,417Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 4:58 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rhode Island's solidly Democratic electorate and history of electing only Democrats to the governorship since 2006 anchor trader expectations for a substantial but not overwhelming margin in the November general election. The September 9 Democratic primary between incumbent Dan McKee and frontrunner Helena Foulkes remains the key near-term catalyst, with recent polls showing Foulkes ahead by double digits amid McKee's low approval and the party's decision not to endorse. On the Republican side, the primary between Elaine Pelino and Aaron Guckian features high undecided shares, while independent Ken Block draws consistent general-election support in hypotheticals. These dynamics produce clustered probabilities around mid-20% Democrat margins, reflecting the state's partisan baseline tempered by potential primary volatility, candidate-specific turnout, and any late shifts in the three-way general-election contest.
The 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,417Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 4:58 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Rhode Island's solidly Democratic electorate and history of electing only Democrats to the governorship since 2006 anchor trader expectations for a substantial but not overwhelming margin in the November general election. The September 9 Democratic primary between incumbent Dan McKee and frontrunner Helena Foulkes remains the key near-term catalyst, with recent polls showing Foulkes ahead by double digits amid McKee's low approval and the party's decision not to endorse. On the Republican side, the primary between Elaine Pelino and Aaron Guckian features high undecided shares, while independent Ken Block draws consistent general-election support in hypotheticals. These dynamics produce clustered probabilities around mid-20% Democrat margins, reflecting the state's partisan baseline tempered by potential primary volatility, candidate-specific turnout, and any late shifts in the three-way general-election contest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election by 30% or more?
68%
Le candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l’élection au poste de gouverneur du Massachusetts en 2026 avec une avance de 10 à 15 % ?
25%
Oui
Le candidat du Parti démocrate gagnera-t-il l'élection au poste de gouverneur du Connecticut en 2026 avec une avance de 10 à 15 % ?
19%
Oui
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