Maura Sullivan leads the NH-01 Democratic primary field with an 82.5% implied probability, driven by consistent fundraising dominance—over $3.6 million raised versus Stefany Shaheen’s $2.4 million—and recent polling gains that show her ahead or statistically tied in the final stretch before the September 8 contest. Sullivan, a Marine veteran and former Obama administration official, has benefited from endorsements including veterans’ groups and a coalition of local supporters, while positioning herself on healthcare and other issues in ways that appeal to a broad Democratic electorate. Shaheen, initially the frontrunner due to name recognition as Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s daughter, has faced challenges from negative ads and attacks over outside funding, dropping to 15.5%. Carleigh Beriont at 3.5% and Heath Howard at 0.1% trail amid a crowded field where undecided voters remain a factor. Trader consensus reflects Sullivan’s resource and momentum advantages in this open-seat race.