Democratic Representative Chris Pappas holds a commanding lead in the September 8 primary against Karishma Manzur, positioning him as the likely nominee in the open-seat contest to succeed retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen. On the Republican side, former Senator John Sununu dominates his primary matchup against Scott Brown ahead of the same date. General election polling shows a tight race between Pappas and Sununu, with recent surveys placing the contest within a few points and some forecasters rating it a toss-up or lean Democratic. Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to a Democratic victory, reflecting New Hampshire’s recent federal voting patterns and the structural advantages for the party in an open seat, though the narrow polling margins highlight sensitivity to turnout, candidate performance in the final weeks, and any late developments before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$96,202 Vol.
$96,202 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Démocrate
84%
Républicain
18%
$96,202 Vol.
$96,202 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Démocrate
$66,621 Vol.
84%
Républicain
$29,581 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic Representative Chris Pappas holds a commanding lead in the September 8 primary against Karishma Manzur, positioning him as the likely nominee in the open-seat contest to succeed retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen. On the Republican side, former Senator John Sununu dominates his primary matchup against Scott Brown ahead of the same date. General election polling shows a tight race between Pappas and Sununu, with recent surveys placing the contest within a few points and some forecasters rating it a toss-up or lean Democratic. Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to a Democratic victory, reflecting New Hampshire’s recent federal voting patterns and the structural advantages for the party in an open seat, though the narrow polling margins highlight sensitivity to turnout, candidate performance in the final weeks, and any late developments before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$96,202Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic Representative Chris Pappas holds a commanding lead in the September 8 primary against Karishma Manzur, positioning him as the likely nominee in the open-seat contest to succeed retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen. On the Republican side, former Senator John Sununu dominates his primary matchup against Scott Brown ahead of the same date. General election polling shows a tight race between Pappas and Sununu, with recent surveys placing the contest within a few points and some forecasters rating it a toss-up or lean Democratic. Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to a Democratic victory, reflecting New Hampshire’s recent federal voting patterns and the structural advantages for the party in an open seat, though the narrow polling margins highlight sensitivity to turnout, candidate performance in the final weeks, and any late developments before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$96,202Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic Representative Chris Pappas holds a commanding lead in the September 8 primary against Karishma Manzur, positioning him as the likely nominee in the open-seat contest to succeed retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen. On the Republican side, former Senator John Sununu dominates his primary matchup against Scott Brown ahead of the same date. General election polling shows a tight race between Pappas and Sununu, with recent surveys placing the contest within a few points and some forecasters rating it a toss-up or lean Democratic. Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to a Democratic victory, reflecting New Hampshire’s recent federal voting patterns and the structural advantages for the party in an open seat, though the narrow polling margins highlight sensitivity to turnout, candidate performance in the final weeks, and any late developments before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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