No at 91.5% reflects the extreme rarity of magnitude-9+ events and the short remaining window to August 31. Globally, M9 earthquakes occur roughly once per decade on average, with the last confirmed case in 2011; 2026 activity has featured only M7–7.8 quakes, consistent with typical subduction-zone recurrence. USGS and international catalogs show no foreshock sequences, accelerated moment release, or official advisories indicating imminent megathrust rupture. While Nankai Trough or Cascadia segments carry elevated multi-decade odds, short-term probabilities remain below 1% even after recent M7+ events. A sudden triggering aftershock or model shift could theoretically alter outcomes, but current seismic data and historical analogs support overwhelming trader consensus against an M9 by month-end.