Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, currently near 2.98%, faces sustained upward pressure into year-end from the Bank of Japan’s ongoing monetary policy normalization and expansive fiscal plans. The BoJ raised its policy rate to 1.0% in June and is widely expected to implement a further 25 basis point hike at its September meeting, responding to inflation risks from elevated oil prices, a weaker yen, and domestically driven price pressures. Record budget requests approaching 140 trillion yen under Prime Minister Takaichi have amplified concerns about debt dynamics and reduced BoJ bond purchases, allowing private investors to demand higher compensation. With global yields also rising amid Middle East tensions, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to levels at or above 3.0% by December 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour3.0%+ 65.8%
2.8-3.0% 13.9%
2.2-2.4% 5.2%
2.6-2.8% 2.7%
$29,237 Vol.
$29,237 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
5%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
12%
3.0%+
66%
3.0%+ 65.8%
2.8-3.0% 13.9%
2.2-2.4% 5.2%
2.6-2.8% 2.7%
$29,237 Vol.
$29,237 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
<2.0%
$1,360 Vol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,684 Vol.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,253 Vol.
5%
2.4-2.6%
$2,552 Vol.
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,546 Vol.
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,693 Vol.
12%
3.0%+
$11,149 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, currently near 2.98%, faces sustained upward pressure into year-end from the Bank of Japan’s ongoing monetary policy normalization and expansive fiscal plans. The BoJ raised its policy rate to 1.0% in June and is widely expected to implement a further 25 basis point hike at its September meeting, responding to inflation risks from elevated oil prices, a weaker yen, and domestically driven price pressures. Record budget requests approaching 140 trillion yen under Prime Minister Takaichi have amplified concerns about debt dynamics and reduced BoJ bond purchases, allowing private investors to demand higher compensation. With global yields also rising amid Middle East tensions, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to levels at or above 3.0% by December 31.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Marché ouvert : Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,237Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, currently near 2.98%, faces sustained upward pressure into year-end from the Bank of Japan’s ongoing monetary policy normalization and expansive fiscal plans. The BoJ raised its policy rate to 1.0% in June and is widely expected to implement a further 25 basis point hike at its September meeting, responding to inflation risks from elevated oil prices, a weaker yen, and domestically driven price pressures. Record budget requests approaching 140 trillion yen under Prime Minister Takaichi have amplified concerns about debt dynamics and reduced BoJ bond purchases, allowing private investors to demand higher compensation. With global yields also rising amid Middle East tensions, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to levels at or above 3.0% by December 31.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Volume
$29,237Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, currently near 2.98%, faces sustained upward pressure into year-end from the Bank of Japan’s ongoing monetary policy normalization and expansive fiscal plans. The BoJ raised its policy rate to 1.0% in June and is widely expected to implement a further 25 basis point hike at its September meeting, responding to inflation risks from elevated oil prices, a weaker yen, and domestically driven price pressures. Record budget requests approaching 140 trillion yen under Prime Minister Takaichi have amplified concerns about debt dynamics and reduced BoJ bond purchases, allowing private investors to demand higher compensation. With global yields also rising amid Middle East tensions, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to levels at or above 3.0% by December 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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