Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election project Ra'am at 4–6 seats, equivalent to roughly 3.3–5% of the national vote. This range reflects consistent but variable estimates across major survey firms, with Arab-sector sampling and turnout projections introducing notable uncertainty. Ra'am's decision to run separately from the Joint List, combined with the addition of a Jewish candidate in a high list position and its distancing from the Southern Islamic Movement, has produced modest projected gains that have not fully materialized in the latest data. Trader consensus remains closely divided between the 3.25–4% and 4–4.75% brackets because small shifts in Arab voter mobilization or preference could easily push results across those thresholds before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4-4,75 % 32%
3,25-4 % 28%
<3,25 % 15%
4,75-5,5 % 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
<3,25 %
28%
3,25-4 %
28%
4-4,75 %
22%
4,75-5,5 %
14%
5,5 %+
7%
4-4,75 % 32%
3,25-4 % 28%
<3,25 % 15%
4,75-5,5 % 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
<3,25 %
$91 Vol.
28%
3,25-4 %
$140 Vol.
28%
4-4,75 %
$542 Vol.
22%
4,75-5,5 %
$113 Vol.
14%
5,5 %+
$148 Vol.
7%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election project Ra'am at 4–6 seats, equivalent to roughly 3.3–5% of the national vote. This range reflects consistent but variable estimates across major survey firms, with Arab-sector sampling and turnout projections introducing notable uncertainty. Ra'am's decision to run separately from the Joint List, combined with the addition of a Jewish candidate in a high list position and its distancing from the Southern Islamic Movement, has produced modest projected gains that have not fully materialized in the latest data. Trader consensus remains closely divided between the 3.25–4% and 4–4.75% brackets because small shifts in Arab voter mobilization or preference could easily push results across those thresholds before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Marché ouvert : Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
Volume
$1,034Date de fin
27 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election project Ra'am at 4–6 seats, equivalent to roughly 3.3–5% of the national vote. This range reflects consistent but variable estimates across major survey firms, with Arab-sector sampling and turnout projections introducing notable uncertainty. Ra'am's decision to run separately from the Joint List, combined with the addition of a Jewish candidate in a high list position and its distancing from the Southern Islamic Movement, has produced modest projected gains that have not fully materialized in the latest data. Trader consensus remains closely divided between the 3.25–4% and 4–4.75% brackets because small shifts in Arab voter mobilization or preference could easily push results across those thresholds before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$1,034Date de fin
27 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election project Ra'am at 4–6 seats, equivalent to roughly 3.3–5% of the national vote. This range reflects consistent but variable estimates across major survey firms, with Arab-sector sampling and turnout projections introducing notable uncertainty. Ra'am's decision to run separately from the Joint List, combined with the addition of a Jewish candidate in a high list position and its distancing from the Southern Islamic Movement, has produced modest projected gains that have not fully materialized in the latest data. Trader consensus remains closely divided between the 3.25–4% and 4–4.75% brackets because small shifts in Arab voter mobilization or preference could easily push results across those thresholds before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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