Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the June 2026 primaries, with Chris McGowan securing the GOP nomination unopposed after incumbent Randy Feenstra retired to pursue the governorship. McGowan, president of the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce, holds endorsements from former Governor Terry Branstad and President Trump, reinforcing party unity in a district that covers northwestern Iowa including Sioux City and Ames. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson advanced from a low-turnout primary against two other candidates. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as safe or solid Republican, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean and historical margins exceeding 20 points. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors. A late national wave favoring Democrats, an unforeseen scandal, or sharply elevated turnout among specific voting blocs could narrow the gap, though such shifts lack precedent in this district's recent election cycles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
IA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$33,170 Vol.
$33,170 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
93%
Parti démocrate
7%
$33,170 Vol.
$33,170 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$20,764 Vol.
93%
Parti démocrate
$12,406 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the June 2026 primaries, with Chris McGowan securing the GOP nomination unopposed after incumbent Randy Feenstra retired to pursue the governorship. McGowan, president of the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce, holds endorsements from former Governor Terry Branstad and President Trump, reinforcing party unity in a district that covers northwestern Iowa including Sioux City and Ames. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson advanced from a low-turnout primary against two other candidates. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as safe or solid Republican, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean and historical margins exceeding 20 points. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors. A late national wave favoring Democrats, an unforeseen scandal, or sharply elevated turnout among specific voting blocs could narrow the gap, though such shifts lack precedent in this district's recent election cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$33,170Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the June 2026 primaries, with Chris McGowan securing the GOP nomination unopposed after incumbent Randy Feenstra retired to pursue the governorship. McGowan, president of the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce, holds endorsements from former Governor Terry Branstad and President Trump, reinforcing party unity in a district that covers northwestern Iowa including Sioux City and Ames. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson advanced from a low-turnout primary against two other candidates. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as safe or solid Republican, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean and historical margins exceeding 20 points. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors. A late national wave favoring Democrats, an unforeseen scandal, or sharply elevated turnout among specific voting blocs could narrow the gap, though such shifts lack precedent in this district's recent election cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,170Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the June 2026 primaries, with Chris McGowan securing the GOP nomination unopposed after incumbent Randy Feenstra retired to pursue the governorship. McGowan, president of the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce, holds endorsements from former Governor Terry Branstad and President Trump, reinforcing party unity in a district that covers northwestern Iowa including Sioux City and Ames. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson advanced from a low-turnout primary against two other candidates. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as safe or solid Republican, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean and historical margins exceeding 20 points. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors. A late national wave favoring Democrats, an unforeseen scandal, or sharply elevated turnout among specific voting blocs could narrow the gap, though such shifts lack precedent in this district's recent election cycles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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