Persistent El Niño conditions and suppressed early-season activity continue to anchor trader expectations for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. As of early August, only two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) have formed, with zero hurricanes, consistent with NOAA’s August 6 update projecting 2-6 hurricanes and Colorado State University’s 4-hurricane forecast. These outlooks incorporate reduced vertical wind shear and atmospheric stability tied to the ongoing El Niño, though September’s climatological peak leaves room for late intensification if steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures shift. The tight spread between 1-3 and 4-6 outcomes reflects model consensus on modest totals while acknowledging forecast uncertainty through November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien d'ouragans se formeront pendant la saison des ouragans de l'Atlantique en 2026 ?
Combien d'ouragans se formeront pendant la saison des ouragans de l'Atlantique en 2026 ?
4-6 41%
1-3 40%
7+ 14%
0 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
0
7%
1-3
40%
4-6
36%
7+
14%
4-6 41%
1-3 40%
7+ 14%
0 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
0
$79 Vol.
7%
1-3
$91 Vol.
40%
4-6
$316 Vol.
36%
7+
$98 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Persistent El Niño conditions and suppressed early-season activity continue to anchor trader expectations for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. As of early August, only two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) have formed, with zero hurricanes, consistent with NOAA’s August 6 update projecting 2-6 hurricanes and Colorado State University’s 4-hurricane forecast. These outlooks incorporate reduced vertical wind shear and atmospheric stability tied to the ongoing El Niño, though September’s climatological peak leaves room for late intensification if steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures shift. The tight spread between 1-3 and 4-6 outcomes reflects model consensus on modest totals while acknowledging forecast uncertainty through November.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Marché ouvert : Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Volume
$584Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Persistent El Niño conditions and suppressed early-season activity continue to anchor trader expectations for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. As of early August, only two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) have formed, with zero hurricanes, consistent with NOAA’s August 6 update projecting 2-6 hurricanes and Colorado State University’s 4-hurricane forecast. These outlooks incorporate reduced vertical wind shear and atmospheric stability tied to the ongoing El Niño, though September’s climatological peak leaves room for late intensification if steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures shift. The tight spread between 1-3 and 4-6 outcomes reflects model consensus on modest totals while acknowledging forecast uncertainty through November.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Volume
$584Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent El Niño conditions and suppressed early-season activity continue to anchor trader expectations for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. As of early August, only two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) have formed, with zero hurricanes, consistent with NOAA’s August 6 update projecting 2-6 hurricanes and Colorado State University’s 4-hurricane forecast. These outlooks incorporate reduced vertical wind shear and atmospheric stability tied to the ongoing El Niño, though September’s climatological peak leaves room for late intensification if steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures shift. The tight spread between 1-3 and 4-6 outcomes reflects model consensus on modest totals while acknowledging forecast uncertainty through November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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