Latest ensemble forecasts indicate a daytime high near 34–35°C in Madrid on September 1 under persistent high pressure and light southerly flow, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. Mostly sunny conditions and minimal cloud cover are expected to support peak readings in the mid-afternoon, consistent with current model consensus from sources like the ECMWF and GFS. This setup reflects limited seasonal cooling relative to the long-term average high of about 30°C for the date, while historical extremes above 34°C remain possible but less favored. Traders appear to weigh these near-term variables heavily, with any shifts in wind or insolation in the final model updates likely to tip the implied probabilities between the leading bins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Madrid le 1er septembre ?
La température la plus élevée à Madrid le 1er septembre ?
35°C 46%
34°C 41%
33°C 8%
36°C 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
8%
34°C
41%
35°C
46%
36°C
7%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
35°C 46%
34°C 41%
33°C 8%
36°C 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
30°C or below
$162 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$10 Vol.
1%
32°C
$5 Vol.
4%
33°C
$0 Vol.
8%
34°C
$105 Vol.
41%
35°C
$307 Vol.
46%
36°C
$7 Vol.
7%
37°C
$4 Vol.
2%
38°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$158 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts indicate a daytime high near 34–35°C in Madrid on September 1 under persistent high pressure and light southerly flow, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. Mostly sunny conditions and minimal cloud cover are expected to support peak readings in the mid-afternoon, consistent with current model consensus from sources like the ECMWF and GFS. This setup reflects limited seasonal cooling relative to the long-term average high of about 30°C for the date, while historical extremes above 34°C remain possible but less favored. Traders appear to weigh these near-term variables heavily, with any shifts in wind or insolation in the final model updates likely to tip the implied probabilities between the leading bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$758Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts indicate a daytime high near 34–35°C in Madrid on September 1 under persistent high pressure and light southerly flow, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. Mostly sunny conditions and minimal cloud cover are expected to support peak readings in the mid-afternoon, consistent with current model consensus from sources like the ECMWF and GFS. This setup reflects limited seasonal cooling relative to the long-term average high of about 30°C for the date, while historical extremes above 34°C remain possible but less favored. Traders appear to weigh these near-term variables heavily, with any shifts in wind or insolation in the final model updates likely to tip the implied probabilities between the leading bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$758Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts indicate a daytime high near 34–35°C in Madrid on September 1 under persistent high pressure and light southerly flow, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. Mostly sunny conditions and minimal cloud cover are expected to support peak readings in the mid-afternoon, consistent with current model consensus from sources like the ECMWF and GFS. This setup reflects limited seasonal cooling relative to the long-term average high of about 30°C for the date, while historical extremes above 34°C remain possible but less favored. Traders appear to weigh these near-term variables heavily, with any shifts in wind or insolation in the final model updates likely to tip the implied probabilities between the leading bins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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