Redistricting has reshaped Florida's 22nd congressional district into a modestly Republican-leaning seat, driving the 62% trader consensus for a GOP victory in the November 2026 general election. An open contest after boundary changes removed the prior Democratic incumbent's core base, combined with Florida's broader electoral trends favoring Republicans, underpins the current pricing over the 37.5% Democratic share. With the August 18 primaries days away, a crowded Republican field featuring candidates like Casey Askar, Michael Carbonara, and Belinda Keiser remains competitive per recent surveys, while Democrats advance from a narrower primary slate. These near-term nominee outcomes and the district's partisan voting index represent the primary variables that could shift implied probabilities ahead of the general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre FL-22
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre FL-22
$39,080 Vol.
$39,080 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
62%
Parti démocrate
38%
$39,080 Vol.
$39,080 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$22,425 Vol.
62%
Parti démocrate
$16,655 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has reshaped Florida's 22nd congressional district into a modestly Republican-leaning seat, driving the 62% trader consensus for a GOP victory in the November 2026 general election. An open contest after boundary changes removed the prior Democratic incumbent's core base, combined with Florida's broader electoral trends favoring Republicans, underpins the current pricing over the 37.5% Democratic share. With the August 18 primaries days away, a crowded Republican field featuring candidates like Casey Askar, Michael Carbonara, and Belinda Keiser remains competitive per recent surveys, while Democrats advance from a narrower primary slate. These near-term nominee outcomes and the district's partisan voting index represent the primary variables that could shift implied probabilities ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$39,080Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has reshaped Florida's 22nd congressional district into a modestly Republican-leaning seat, driving the 62% trader consensus for a GOP victory in the November 2026 general election. An open contest after boundary changes removed the prior Democratic incumbent's core base, combined with Florida's broader electoral trends favoring Republicans, underpins the current pricing over the 37.5% Democratic share. With the August 18 primaries days away, a crowded Republican field featuring candidates like Casey Askar, Michael Carbonara, and Belinda Keiser remains competitive per recent surveys, while Democrats advance from a narrower primary slate. These near-term nominee outcomes and the district's partisan voting index represent the primary variables that could shift implied probabilities ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,080Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting has reshaped Florida's 22nd congressional district into a modestly Republican-leaning seat, driving the 62% trader consensus for a GOP victory in the November 2026 general election. An open contest after boundary changes removed the prior Democratic incumbent's core base, combined with Florida's broader electoral trends favoring Republicans, underpins the current pricing over the 37.5% Democratic share. With the August 18 primaries days away, a crowded Republican field featuring candidates like Casey Askar, Michael Carbonara, and Belinda Keiser remains competitive per recent surveys, while Democrats advance from a narrower primary slate. These near-term nominee outcomes and the district's partisan voting index represent the primary variables that could shift implied probabilities ahead of the general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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