Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July PCE at 3.7% and core measures near 3.3%, alongside a stable labor market featuring 4.1% unemployment, has anchored trader sentiment toward no easing through October. The July FOMC’s 9-3 hold at 3.5-3.75%, paired with hawkish rhetoric and dissenters favoring hikes, shifted market-implied odds toward Pause–Pause–Pause at 36% while elevating Other scenarios at 61.5% that incorporate potential tightening. Recent data on sticky energy prices and resilient growth have reinforced expectations that the policy rate path will remain data-dependent rather than easing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOther 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$748,042 Vol.
$748,042 Vol.
28 oct. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
62%
Other 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$748,042 Vol.
$748,042 Vol.
28 oct. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$250,736 Vol.
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,624 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,317 Vol.
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$28,302 Vol.
<1%
Other
$319,574 Vol.
62%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July PCE at 3.7% and core measures near 3.3%, alongside a stable labor market featuring 4.1% unemployment, has anchored trader sentiment toward no easing through October. The July FOMC’s 9-3 hold at 3.5-3.75%, paired with hawkish rhetoric and dissenters favoring hikes, shifted market-implied odds toward Pause–Pause–Pause at 36% while elevating Other scenarios at 61.5% that incorporate potential tightening. Recent data on sticky energy prices and resilient growth have reinforced expectations that the policy rate path will remain data-dependent rather than easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$748,042Date de fin
28 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July PCE at 3.7% and core measures near 3.3%, alongside a stable labor market featuring 4.1% unemployment, has anchored trader sentiment toward no easing through October. The July FOMC’s 9-3 hold at 3.5-3.75%, paired with hawkish rhetoric and dissenters favoring hikes, shifted market-implied odds toward Pause–Pause–Pause at 36% while elevating Other scenarios at 61.5% that incorporate potential tightening. Recent data on sticky energy prices and resilient growth have reinforced expectations that the policy rate path will remain data-dependent rather than easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$748,042Date de fin
28 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July PCE at 3.7% and core measures near 3.3%, alongside a stable labor market featuring 4.1% unemployment, has anchored trader sentiment toward no easing through October. The July FOMC’s 9-3 hold at 3.5-3.75%, paired with hawkish rhetoric and dissenters favoring hikes, shifted market-implied odds toward Pause–Pause–Pause at 36% while elevating Other scenarios at 61.5% that incorporate potential tightening. Recent data on sticky energy prices and resilient growth have reinforced expectations that the policy rate path will remain data-dependent rather than easing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes