Escalating U.S. military strikes on Iranian positions across the Persian Gulf, including recent hits on Kharg Island's military infrastructure and sites near the Strait of Hormuz, represent the core driver of trader positioning in this market. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports and remains operational despite targeted attacks, with satellite data showing resumed VLCC loadings in mid-August 2026, while Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi islands retain strategic value for IRGC maritime control. Oil market dynamics amplify relevance, as sustained disruptions through the strait—which normally carries about one-fifth of global seaborne oil—have supported elevated energy prices and shipping costs. Ongoing talks and U.S. statements signaling possible further action on energy assets create near-term volatility, though full territorial shifts would require ground operations not yet indicated in public reporting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$111,814 Vol.
31 août 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
2%
$111,814 Vol.
August 31
$39,965 Vol.
1%
September 30
$71,849 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S. military strikes on Iranian positions across the Persian Gulf, including recent hits on Kharg Island's military infrastructure and sites near the Strait of Hormuz, represent the core driver of trader positioning in this market. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports and remains operational despite targeted attacks, with satellite data showing resumed VLCC loadings in mid-August 2026, while Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi islands retain strategic value for IRGC maritime control. Oil market dynamics amplify relevance, as sustained disruptions through the strait—which normally carries about one-fifth of global seaborne oil—have supported elevated energy prices and shipping costs. Ongoing talks and U.S. statements signaling possible further action on energy assets create near-term volatility, though full territorial shifts would require ground operations not yet indicated in public reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$111,814Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S. military strikes on Iranian positions across the Persian Gulf, including recent hits on Kharg Island's military infrastructure and sites near the Strait of Hormuz, represent the core driver of trader positioning in this market. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports and remains operational despite targeted attacks, with satellite data showing resumed VLCC loadings in mid-August 2026, while Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi islands retain strategic value for IRGC maritime control. Oil market dynamics amplify relevance, as sustained disruptions through the strait—which normally carries about one-fifth of global seaborne oil—have supported elevated energy prices and shipping costs. Ongoing talks and U.S. statements signaling possible further action on energy assets create near-term volatility, though full territorial shifts would require ground operations not yet indicated in public reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$111,814Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S. military strikes on Iranian positions across the Persian Gulf, including recent hits on Kharg Island's military infrastructure and sites near the Strait of Hormuz, represent the core driver of trader positioning in this market. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports and remains operational despite targeted attacks, with satellite data showing resumed VLCC loadings in mid-August 2026, while Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi islands retain strategic value for IRGC maritime control. Oil market dynamics amplify relevance, as sustained disruptions through the strait—which normally carries about one-fifth of global seaborne oil—have supported elevated energy prices and shipping costs. Ongoing talks and U.S. statements signaling possible further action on energy assets create near-term volatility, though full territorial shifts would require ground operations not yet indicated in public reporting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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