Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and strikes around the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver of trader positioning on these islands' control. Kharg Island, handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, has seen repeated targeting of military assets alongside episodic VLCC loadings that resumed in mid-August after a month-long blockade-related halt, with volumes still well below pre-conflict norms. Disruptions have compressed Iranian flows—down as much as 84% in May—elevating tanker insurance premia, dark-fleet activity, and global energy price volatility while leaving ownership unchanged. Diplomatic talks with Oman on a temporary corridor and Iranian assertions of sovereignty continue without resolution, keeping market-implied odds of territorial loss low amid stalled negotiations and no observed occupation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$111,814 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
2%
$111,814 Vol.
August 31
$39,965 Vol.
1%
September 30
$71,849 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and strikes around the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver of trader positioning on these islands' control. Kharg Island, handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, has seen repeated targeting of military assets alongside episodic VLCC loadings that resumed in mid-August after a month-long blockade-related halt, with volumes still well below pre-conflict norms. Disruptions have compressed Iranian flows—down as much as 84% in May—elevating tanker insurance premia, dark-fleet activity, and global energy price volatility while leaving ownership unchanged. Diplomatic talks with Oman on a temporary corridor and Iranian assertions of sovereignty continue without resolution, keeping market-implied odds of territorial loss low amid stalled negotiations and no observed occupation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$111,814Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and strikes around the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver of trader positioning on these islands' control. Kharg Island, handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, has seen repeated targeting of military assets alongside episodic VLCC loadings that resumed in mid-August after a month-long blockade-related halt, with volumes still well below pre-conflict norms. Disruptions have compressed Iranian flows—down as much as 84% in May—elevating tanker insurance premia, dark-fleet activity, and global energy price volatility while leaving ownership unchanged. Diplomatic talks with Oman on a temporary corridor and Iranian assertions of sovereignty continue without resolution, keeping market-implied odds of territorial loss low amid stalled negotiations and no observed occupation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$111,814Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and strikes around the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver of trader positioning on these islands' control. Kharg Island, handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, has seen repeated targeting of military assets alongside episodic VLCC loadings that resumed in mid-August after a month-long blockade-related halt, with volumes still well below pre-conflict norms. Disruptions have compressed Iranian flows—down as much as 84% in May—elevating tanker insurance premia, dark-fleet activity, and global energy price volatility while leaving ownership unchanged. Diplomatic talks with Oman on a temporary corridor and Iranian assertions of sovereignty continue without resolution, keeping market-implied odds of territorial loss low amid stalled negotiations and no observed occupation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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