Ongoing US-Iran military tensions, including airstrikes on military targets at Kharg Island and nearby Hormuz Strait outposts, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on control shifts for these Persian Gulf islands. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports via its terminals, making any loss of sovereignty a direct hit to Tehran’s oil revenue and a potential catalyst for Brent and WTI price spikes through supply disruptions. Recent satellite data show partial loading restarts at Kharg’s western terminal after multi-week shutdowns tied to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, while dark-fleet tanker activity persists amid sanctions. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over further escalation, with key near-term catalysts including possible FOMC-related risk appetite shifts, diplomatic timelines, or renewed strikes that could alter export infrastructure control.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$111,814 Vol.
31 août 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
2%
$111,814 Vol.
August 31
$39,965 Vol.
1%
September 30
$71,849 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military tensions, including airstrikes on military targets at Kharg Island and nearby Hormuz Strait outposts, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on control shifts for these Persian Gulf islands. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports via its terminals, making any loss of sovereignty a direct hit to Tehran’s oil revenue and a potential catalyst for Brent and WTI price spikes through supply disruptions. Recent satellite data show partial loading restarts at Kharg’s western terminal after multi-week shutdowns tied to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, while dark-fleet tanker activity persists amid sanctions. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over further escalation, with key near-term catalysts including possible FOMC-related risk appetite shifts, diplomatic timelines, or renewed strikes that could alter export infrastructure control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$111,814Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military tensions, including airstrikes on military targets at Kharg Island and nearby Hormuz Strait outposts, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on control shifts for these Persian Gulf islands. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports via its terminals, making any loss of sovereignty a direct hit to Tehran’s oil revenue and a potential catalyst for Brent and WTI price spikes through supply disruptions. Recent satellite data show partial loading restarts at Kharg’s western terminal after multi-week shutdowns tied to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, while dark-fleet tanker activity persists amid sanctions. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over further escalation, with key near-term catalysts including possible FOMC-related risk appetite shifts, diplomatic timelines, or renewed strikes that could alter export infrastructure control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$111,814Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military tensions, including airstrikes on military targets at Kharg Island and nearby Hormuz Strait outposts, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on control shifts for these Persian Gulf islands. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports via its terminals, making any loss of sovereignty a direct hit to Tehran’s oil revenue and a potential catalyst for Brent and WTI price spikes through supply disruptions. Recent satellite data show partial loading restarts at Kharg’s western terminal after multi-week shutdowns tied to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, while dark-fleet tanker activity persists amid sanctions. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over further escalation, with key near-term catalysts including possible FOMC-related risk appetite shifts, diplomatic timelines, or renewed strikes that could alter export infrastructure control.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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