**Recent polling and by-election results have reinforced Liberal dominance in Canadian federal politics, driving trader consensus against Conservatives flipping Liberal seats in 2026.** Following the April 2025 election, where Mark Carney’s Liberals secured a minority government with 169 seats to the Conservatives’ 144, the Liberals have expanded their position through floor crossings, defections, and by-election victories. As of September 2026, multiple trackers show Liberals leading Conservatives by 10–15 points nationally (typically 44–47% to 29–35%), with recent special votes in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia delivering strong Liberal margins amid voter reactions to U.S. trade tensions. Conservative support remains regionally concentrated and has not translated into competitive seat gains in key ridings. While a sudden economic shock, leadership transition, or major policy reversal could narrow the gap, current indicators point to sustained Liberal advantages in vote intention and riding-level dynamics through the remainder of the year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
4% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.**Recent polling and by-election results have reinforced Liberal dominance in Canadian federal politics, driving trader consensus against Conservatives flipping Liberal seats in 2026.** Following the April 2025 election, where Mark Carney’s Liberals secured a minority government with 169 seats to the Conservatives’ 144, the Liberals have expanded their position through floor crossings, defections, and by-election victories. As of September 2026, multiple trackers show Liberals leading Conservatives by 10–15 points nationally (typically 44–47% to 29–35%), with recent special votes in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia delivering strong Liberal margins amid voter reactions to U.S. trade tensions. Conservative support remains regionally concentrated and has not translated into competitive seat gains in key ridings. While a sudden economic shock, leadership transition, or major policy reversal could narrow the gap, current indicators point to sustained Liberal advantages in vote intention and riding-level dynamics through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Volume
$8,241Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.**Recent polling and by-election results have reinforced Liberal dominance in Canadian federal politics, driving trader consensus against Conservatives flipping Liberal seats in 2026.** Following the April 2025 election, where Mark Carney’s Liberals secured a minority government with 169 seats to the Conservatives’ 144, the Liberals have expanded their position through floor crossings, defections, and by-election victories. As of September 2026, multiple trackers show Liberals leading Conservatives by 10–15 points nationally (typically 44–47% to 29–35%), with recent special votes in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia delivering strong Liberal margins amid voter reactions to U.S. trade tensions. Conservative support remains regionally concentrated and has not translated into competitive seat gains in key ridings. While a sudden economic shock, leadership transition, or major policy reversal could narrow the gap, current indicators point to sustained Liberal advantages in vote intention and riding-level dynamics through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Volume
$8,241Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling and by-election results have reinforced Liberal dominance in Canadian federal politics, driving trader consensus against Conservatives flipping Liberal seats in 2026.** Following the April 2025 election, where Mark Carney’s Liberals secured a minority government with 169 seats to the Conservatives’ 144, the Liberals have expanded their position through floor crossings, defections, and by-election victories. As of September 2026, multiple trackers show Liberals leading Conservatives by 10–15 points nationally (typically 44–47% to 29–35%), with recent special votes in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia delivering strong Liberal margins amid voter reactions to U.S. trade tensions. Conservative support remains regionally concentrated and has not translated into competitive seat gains in key ridings. While a sudden economic shock, leadership transition, or major policy reversal could narrow the gap, current indicators point to sustained Liberal advantages in vote intention and riding-level dynamics through the remainder of the year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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