Maxine Waters, the longtime Democratic incumbent, secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary with over 63 percent of the vote and advances against Republican Cristian Morales in the November general election. The district's strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Solid D or Safe D ratings from forecasters, underpins the 95.5 percent market consensus for a Democratic win. This positioning stems from voter registration patterns, historical election margins, and the absence of competitive challengers capable of narrowing the gap post-primary. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a major personal or ethical scandal involving the incumbent, a pronounced national Republican surge in the midterms, or unforeseen health developments affecting candidate viability before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-43 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-43 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$31,580 Vol.
$31,580 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
96%
Parti républicain
3%
$31,580 Vol.
$31,580 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$10,935 Vol.
96%
Parti républicain
$20,645 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maxine Waters, the longtime Democratic incumbent, secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary with over 63 percent of the vote and advances against Republican Cristian Morales in the November general election. The district's strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Solid D or Safe D ratings from forecasters, underpins the 95.5 percent market consensus for a Democratic win. This positioning stems from voter registration patterns, historical election margins, and the absence of competitive challengers capable of narrowing the gap post-primary. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a major personal or ethical scandal involving the incumbent, a pronounced national Republican surge in the midterms, or unforeseen health developments affecting candidate viability before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Volume
$31,580Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maxine Waters, the longtime Democratic incumbent, secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary with over 63 percent of the vote and advances against Republican Cristian Morales in the November general election. The district's strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Solid D or Safe D ratings from forecasters, underpins the 95.5 percent market consensus for a Democratic win. This positioning stems from voter registration patterns, historical election margins, and the absence of competitive challengers capable of narrowing the gap post-primary. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a major personal or ethical scandal involving the incumbent, a pronounced national Republican surge in the midterms, or unforeseen health developments affecting candidate viability before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,580Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maxine Waters, the longtime Democratic incumbent, secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary with over 63 percent of the vote and advances against Republican Cristian Morales in the November general election. The district's strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Solid D or Safe D ratings from forecasters, underpins the 95.5 percent market consensus for a Democratic win. This positioning stems from voter registration patterns, historical election margins, and the absence of competitive challengers capable of narrowing the gap post-primary. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a major personal or ethical scandal involving the incumbent, a pronounced national Republican surge in the midterms, or unforeseen health developments affecting candidate viability before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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