**Brazil's 2026 IPCA annual inflation market shows tight trader consensus between the 4.50-4.99% and 5.00-5.49% bands, mirroring the latest Focus survey median of 4.90%.** Recent cooler-than-expected readings, including August's 4.22% year-over-year print, have driven three consecutive downward revisions in economist projections. Supply-side pressures now dominate headline inflation amid moderating domestic demand and services stickiness, while the Selic rate is expected to ease 25 basis points to 13.75% at this week's Copom meeting. These dynamics keep the two leading outcomes closely matched, with fiscal stimulus and commodity volatility as key swing factors for the final outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour5,00-5,49 % 46.9%
4,50-4,99 % 40.2%
5,50-5,99 % 7.3%
6,00-6,49 % 2.8%
$112,117 Vol.
$112,117 Vol.
<3,00 %
<1%
3,00-3,49 %
<1%
3,50-3,99 %
1%
4,00-4,49 %
2%
4,50-4,99 %
40%
5,00-5,49 %
47%
5,50-5,99 %
7%
6,00-6,49 %
3%
6,50-6,99 %
<1%
7,00 %+
1%
5,00-5,49 % 46.9%
4,50-4,99 % 40.2%
5,50-5,99 % 7.3%
6,00-6,49 % 2.8%
$112,117 Vol.
$112,117 Vol.
<3,00 %
<1%
3,00-3,49 %
<1%
3,50-3,99 %
1%
4,00-4,49 %
2%
4,50-4,99 %
40%
5,00-5,49 %
47%
5,50-5,99 %
7%
6,00-6,49 %
3%
6,50-6,99 %
<1%
7,00 %+
1%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Marché ouvert : Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...**Brazil's 2026 IPCA annual inflation market shows tight trader consensus between the 4.50-4.99% and 5.00-5.49% bands, mirroring the latest Focus survey median of 4.90%.** Recent cooler-than-expected readings, including August's 4.22% year-over-year print, have driven three consecutive downward revisions in economist projections. Supply-side pressures now dominate headline inflation amid moderating domestic demand and services stickiness, while the Selic rate is expected to ease 25 basis points to 13.75% at this week's Copom meeting. These dynamics keep the two leading outcomes closely matched, with fiscal stimulus and commodity volatility as key swing factors for the final outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour



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